Monday, September 12, 2016

As many jobs created as those who left work force under Obama

14,770,000 net new jobs were created since January 2009 when Obama first took office — and according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, most of those went to foreign-born workers: Foreign born workers / Native born workers — And the U.S. has 13,862,000 more working age Americans not in the labor force since January 2009 since Obama first took office.

For the sake of argument (to give the Obama administration the best benefit of the doubt), we'll assume that all 8.7 million people who lost jobs during the Great Recession have either went on disability, retired on Social Security, were incarcerated (criminally or medically), passed away, left the country or found another job — and not a single one is officially counted as "unemployed" today (as of September 2016).

Since Obama first took office in 2009, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, the U.S. has averaged over 3 million high school graduates every year during his tenure (24 million total during Obama's time in office) — and many, probably most, have went on to college for a certain amount of time and then either dropped out or graduated from college (and we can assume that most of them have attempted to enter the job market).

Net new jobs created under Obama per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (in thousands)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Net Jobs Created
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279 -5,070,000
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88 1,066,000
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207 2,087,000
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243 2,149,000
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45 2,311,000
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292 3,015,000
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271 2,744,000
2016 168 233 186 144 24 271 275-p 151-p - - - - 1,398,000
Total to Date 14,770,000

 24 million graduates during Obama's tenure
-15 million jobs created during Obama's tenure
- 9 million jobs short (minus those who have either went on disability, left the country, was incarcerated (criminally or medically), passed away or left the country — and we have almost 14 million more working age Americans "not in the labor force" during Obama's tenure.

On her website, Hillary Clinton claims she can create 10.4 million jobs "in her first term alone". With 3 million graduates a year, will that be enough? How many of those jobs will go to foreign-born workers and those on guestworker visas? How many will be part-time or low-paying jobs at McDonalds and Wal-Mart?

Americans not in the labor force during Obama's tenure per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (in thousands)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 80529 80374 80953 80762 80705 80938 81367 81780 82495 82766 82865 83813
2010 83349 83304 83206 82707 83409 84075 84199 84014 84347 84895 84590 85240
2011 85441 85637 85623 85603 85834 86144 86383 86111 85940 86308 86312 86589
2012 87918 87740 87837 88227 88106 88071 88411 88812 88605 88443 88818 88753
2013 88997 89514 89961 89810 89880 89799 90094 90391 90419 91686 91215 91663
2014 91630 91526 91071 92063 92111 92130 91934 92149 92317 92294 92402 92885
2015 92699 93022 93190 93234 93089 93679 93761 94035 94458 94446 94380 94103
2016 94062 93668 93482 94044 94707 94517 94333 94391 - - - -

We have almost 1 million more Americans "not in the labor force" (but want a job now) during Obama's tenure per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (in thousands).

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 4846 4739 4718 4733 4851 4929 5023 4922 5153 5094 5421 5431
2009 5708 5617 5807 5927 5986 5908 6003 5649 5949 6002 5998 6186
2010 5942 6098 5993 5913 5824 5909 5895 6037 6270 6289 6182 6431
2011 6472 6390 6527 6537 6289 6519 6513 6463 6262 6384 6538 6323
2012 6353 6337 6299 6388 6332 6559 6513 7010 6817 6552 6849 6727
2013 6647 6775 6666 6402 6676 6567 6517 6282 6136 6048 5724 6118
2014 6381 6018 6134 6175 6517 6162 6271 6380 6397 6499 6570 6407
2015 6333 6488 6310 6194 6047 6057 6104 5918 5944 6039 5637 5886
2016 5973 5870 5712 5793 5923 5692 5886 5833  -  -  -  -

The unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009 but is reported by the Obama administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the media at 4.9% today.

Economic Populist (September 2016) "The labor participation rate is 62.8% ... Pre-recession, the January 2008 labor participate rate was 66.2% — a far cry from what we see today. Ignoring labor participation rates after 2008, one has to go to the late 1977 to find rates this low ... Below is a graph of those not in the labor force, (maroon, scale on the left), against the noninstitutional civilian population (blue, scale on the right). Notice how those not in the labor force crisscrosses the noninstitutional civilian population in growth.  The civilian noninstituitonal population is from where all other labor statistics have sprung, so to see strong acceleration in those not counted as participating in the labor force than the pool of population possible to be part of the labor force in the first place has been the bad sign of the last eight years."

*Full Disclosure: I didn't compare jobs created vs. those not in the labor force, or how many of the jobs that were created went to foreign-born workers, compared to previous administrations.

1 comment:

  1. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/white-working-class-poverty/424341/

    ReplyDelete