Once Benefits End, so do Chances of Finding a Job

After unemployment benefits end, most Americans will never find another job, and may never work again. Just ask 23.9 million other Americans --- they'll tell you. And that's just those who qualified for extended jobless benefits. Some put the number of people who are actually unemployed and who want a job closer to 48 million. (That is not a typo. Only a little over 1/3 of the "still counted" unemployed received jobless benefits as of yesterday).

The government currently reports 2.9 million job openings; so based on 48 million, that's about 1 job for every 16 unemployed. That's what the unemployed are up against for job competition. And if your unemployment benefits run out, you can't buy gas and go to job interviews (but you might be able to apply for food stamps and Medicaid now.)

Welcome to our world of the economically desperate. You aren't alone. Many have been here for 5 years or longer --- at least since the mass layoffs of 2008-09.

The White House recently reported that almost 23.9 million long-term unemployed Americans were out of work at least 6 months and received extended unemployment benefits over the past 5 years --- but the Bureau of Labor Statistics currently reports that only 4.1 million are long-term unemployed, while only 1.3 million of those were receiving extended unemployment benefits (before they expired yesterday).

So can we suppose that the other 22.6 million (who at one time, received extended unemployment benefits) found a job? The simple answer is no, most did not, and neither will those who just lost their benefits.

During that same period of time, over the past 5 years, about 6.9 million more Americans retired or went on disability, while only a little more than 8.1 million jobs were created (either full-time or part-time jobs).

Now suppose all of these 23.9 million long-term unemployed people (who once received extended unemployment benefits) have all since either:

• found work again (full or part-time)
• retired (early or regular)
• went on disability
• were incarcerated (hospital, prison, etc.)
• renounced their citizenship/left the country
• became a dependent stay-at-home spouse/room-mate/partner
• became homeless
• died

If so, then what happened to over 15 million high school graduates from 2008 to 2013 who were looking to first enter the work force? Reports say that almost half are still unemployed.

A Fed Study from earlier this year found:

"The unemployment share of those who have been out of work 99 weeks or more rose from about 6% in late 2009 to 14% in late 2012. This shift towards very long-term unemployment also tends to increase average duration...some degree of elevated long-term unemployment may be here to stay ... the primary explanation for historically high long-term unemployment is the persistent weakness in overall economic activity and demand for labor." (*Low demand for labor in an over-saturated labor market is in some ways good for business, in that it further drives down wages.)

A more recent Fed study found that "the rate of decline in interview requests appears to drop sharply after six months of nonemployment. Résumés for employed applicants have a 10.25 percent chance of receiving an interview request."

• Note: It says for employed applicants, not unemployed applicants. Read more here: There's about a 0% chance for a long-term unemployed middle-aged worker after being unemployed for a year or longer.)

Now remember, there were 23.9 million long-term unemployed Americans who were out of work at least 6 months and received extended unemployment benefits over the last 5 years. Many have been unemployed for the past 5 years.

From the Washington Post: "If you've been out of work for 27 weeks [6 months] or longer, then you currently have just a 12 percent chance of finding a new job in a given month. And those odds go down the longer you're out of work."

Note: According to an op-ed by the economist Dean Baker in the New York Times last year, he estimated that for workers over 50 who had been unemployed for 17 months or longer, they only had about a 9 percent chance of ever finding a new job --- and the longer they were unemployed, the lower their chances for ever finding work again. The odds may be lower now.

Now remember, 23.9 million long-term unemployed Americans were out of work at least 6 months and received extended unemployment benefits over the last 5 years.

So if someone who has been out of work for 6 months has only about a 10% chance of getting rehired, that means only 2.4 million of those 24 million who received extended unemployment benefits found jobs. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics currently reports that only a little more than 4.1 million are long-term unemployed. Where did over 17.5 million people go? They either:

• found work again (full or part-time)
• retired (early or regular)
• went on disability
• were incarcerated (hospital, prison, etc.)
• renounced their citizenship/left the country
• became a dependent stay-at-home spouse/room-mate/partner
• became homeless
• died

So no matter how you look at it, if you become unemployed for 6 months, you are SOL --- and not just because your unemployment benefits end, but also because your odds of ever getting a job interview (or being rehired again) drops to anywhere between 0 and 12% (depending on various studies.)

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities notes that almost 5 million more unemployed Americans may lose their jobless benefits within the next 26 weeks --- and then they too will also be designated "long-term unemployed" and competing for the very few jobs available.

By that time, within the next 26 weeks (6 months from now), we might expect the odds will be worse than 10% of ever getting a job interview (never mind actually being hired for another job) --- especially if one has been jobless for over a year or more --- and if they are over 50 years old --- and if they lack a college education --- and if they now have a bad credit score --- and especially if they become homeless. They can forgetaboutit!

So, the bad news is, if you lose your job today, you'll only have 6 months (or less, see the maps below) to find another job --- or you too will join the growing ranks of the economically doomed. And both the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts the situation will only get worse going forward into 2022.

But the good news is, the Republicans can no longer hold you as a hostage.

Before Federal Extended Unemployment Benefits Expired

Maximum Amount of Unemployment Benefits Now