Is this the Smoking Gun? (Jobs and Participation Rate)

Using data from the Bureau Labor Statistics, they reported an additional 1,911,000 year-to-date (from Sept. 2013 to Sept. 2014) for those "not in the labor force". Now subtract 1,155,557 for retired and disabled on Social Security during that same time for a difference of 755,443. That would indicated that, out of 3,037,040 high school (and college) graduates this year, 755,443 of them dropped out of the labor force to maybe "take care of home or family" — but yet, of those, 65,000 less say they "wanted a job" compared to last year. That would indicate 2,281,597 graduates found jobs this past year (and/or no one else was hired). That is astonishing! But wait....how many jobs were created year-to-date during that time? The Bureau Labor Statistics reports 2,799,000 — for a shortfall of 517,403 jobs. The numbers don't add up, not even for government work.

And were those 2,799,000 net new jobs created for 2,799,000 different people over the last year? And how many people got a job, then were laid off, and then got another job? (Meaning, 2 jobs were created for 1 worker.) Or how many people took a secondary job? Again, 2 jobs created for 1 worker. Currently we have 7.1 million "multiple job holders". And of those 2,799,000 jobs that were created over the past year*, how many were part-time? Currently 6.7 million people work part-time because they can't find full-time work (or because their hours were cut).

* BLS JOLTS: "Over the 12 months ending in August 2014, hires totaled 56.2 million and separations totaled 53.6 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.5 million. These figures include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year."

Over the last year (year-to-date) we've had over 3 million high school and college graduates (ages 16 to 24), but the Bureau Labor Statistics reports only 810,000 of those are "not in the labor force" -- and of those, only 136,000 "want a job".

During that same time, according the the BLS, we've had an additional 227,000 people (ages 25 to 54) "not in the labor force" --- and during that time, we've also had an additional 33,043 on Social Security disability.

During that same time (year-to-date, from September 2013 to September 2014) the Bureau Labor Statistics reports an additional 1,602,000 people (ages 25 to 54) "not in the labor force" --- and during that same period of time, we've had an additional 1,122,514 retired on Social Security.

   Year-to-date: more retired ......................1,122,514
+ Year-to-date: more disabled ....................... 33,043
= Year-to-date: more "not in labor force" = 1,155,557 —  the vast majority of the additional year-to-date number of 1,911,000 that the BLS reports, implying that hi8gh school and college graduates who can't find work only make up a tiny part of the decline in the labor force participation rate.

^ This is just for the past year; but it's calculated every year by the government the same way.

Not in the labor force and not counted in the unemployment rate

YTD	Sept 2013	Sept 2014	Difference	Want a job	Sept 2013	Sept 2014	Difference	Demographics	Sept 2013	Sept 2014	Difference
Total	90,632	92,543	1,911,000	➡	5,775	6,007	232,000	-	-	-	-
16 - 24	17,639	17,720	810,000	➡	1,681	1,817	136,000	High School Grads*	[Class of 2012/13 3,092,290]	[Class of 2013/14 3,037,040]	3,037,040
25 - 54	23,441	23,668	227,000	➡	2,599	2,534	- 65,000	SS Disabled	8,925,372	8,958,415	33,043
55 and over	49,553	51,155	1,602,000	➡	1,495	1,656	161,000	SS Retired	37,674,932	38,797,446	1,122,514

• Source for labor force stats: Bureau Labor Statistics
• Source for Retirements and Disabled Workers: Social Security Administration
• Source for graduates: National Center for Education Statistics
• * For every person who graduates from school and then goes to college, there's also one college graduate or drop out. (Projections to 2022)

* As an aside: Also from the National Center for Education Statistics:
During the 2014–15 school year, colleges and universities are expected to award: 1.0 million associate’s degrees 1.8 million bachelor's degrees 821,000 master's degrees 177,500 doctor's degrees 3.8 million total degrees	In 2011–12, postsecondary institutions awarded: 1.0 million certificates below associate’s degree 1.0 million associate’s degrees 1.8 million bachelor’s degrees 754,000 master’s degrees 170,100 doctor’s degrees 4.7 million total degrees

Wage Earners from 1999 to 2014 According to new wage data for 2013 from the Social Security Administration this week (released in October 2014), the median annual wage today is $56 a year less than it was 14 years ago in 1999 (adjusted for inflation.) Note: The decline in the labor force participation rate began in April of 2000, even though the population increased. Also, we had 155.5 million wage earners in 2007 BEFORE the recession — but as of last year we only had 155.7 million (4 years AFTER the recession officially ended). According to the Social Security Administration, 50 percent of all wage earners had a net compensation less than or equal to the median wage — meaning, half took home more and half took home less for each year listed below: Year Nominal median wage for wage earners Median wage in inflation-adjusted 1999 dollars Total# of wage earners per SSA* # earning less than $20,000 a year* # in the civilian labor force per BLS* # individual Tax returns per IRS* 2013 $28,031 $20,046 155,772,341 60,821,942 154,937,000 - 2012 $27,519 $19,968 153,632,290 60,875,833 155,485,000 - 2011 $26,965 $19,971 151,380,749 60,978,000 153,927,000 - 2010 $26,363 $20,141 150,398,796 61,707,714 153,639,000 - 2009 $26,261 $20,393 150,917,733 61,895,195 153,111,000 - 2008 $26,514 $20,516 155,434,562 62,987,266 154,655,000 - 2007 $25,737 $20,679 155,570,422 64,477,278 153,918,000 - 2006 $24,891 $20,569 153,852,734 65,354,611 152,732,000 - 2005 $23,962 $20,440 151,603,359 66,275,542 150,030,000 - 2004 $23,355 $20,597 149,438,752 66,615,906 148,059,000 - 2003 $22,576 $20,441 147,722,206 67,539,573 146,729,000 - 2002 $22,152 $20,514 148,069,056 68,615,025 145,066,000 - 2001 $21,767 $20,476 148,282,344 69,580,658 144,305,000 - 2000 $20,957 $20,275 148,113,768 71,516,447 143,248,000 - 1999 $20,102 $20,102 145,060,839 72,258,638 140,177,000 - * $20,000 a year would equate to a full-time job of 40 hours a week making $9.61 per hour before taxes. * A "wage earner" is anyone being paid an hourly wage or a salary that is taxed for FICA on W-4 forms. A CEO with $100 million in stock option grants, but is also paid a base salary of only $1 dollar, can also be a "wage earner" — but who would only have to pay Social Security taxes on that $1 — because realized capital gains after one year are not taxed for Social Security. * The number in the civilian labor force exceed the number of wage earners, most likely because those who are still counted as "unemployed" (but not a wage earner) are still considered part of the labor force. * You can visit the IRS website and compare the number of individual tax returns for each year as well (to fill in the last column in the table above). There's usually a lot less than the number of actual wage earners or the number of people in the labor force (and for confusing and unexplained reasons.)