Saturday, April 30, 2016

Why should Bernie run as an Independent? Because he’d win.

Bernie Sanders has already insisted that he would back whoever the Democratic nominee may be; and has wife Jane has said he won't risk splitting the Democratic party ticket and giving Trump a win. Of course, many people will argue that many of the people who are supporting Bernie aren't even Democrats (so there's nothing to "split") — and many wouldn't have even voted if Bernie had not been in the race. And as far as "Berniecrats" are concerned, their "party" is already united (therefore, there's nothing to "unify").

The "Bernie or Bust" movement is real, because Bernie's supporters are the "political revolution". Those voting for Hillary Clinton have been voting for the status quo — and many have been voting to continue with Obama's policies. But since most of the establishment Democrats in Congress are supporting Clinton, it's odd that so many people have been backing a candidate who is being supported by a group of polititions whose own favorability rating is a mere 17%.

Bernie first ran for President to move Hillary Clinton further to the left. But the very day after the July convention, if Bernie is no longer running, she will lean more to the right — and if she ever becomes the President, she will snap right back — all the way to the right where she was before — especially on the economic issues. Her foreign policy will remain hawkish.

The image below shows Hillary Clinton's Firewall in the deep South with high populations of African-Americans who are mostly "registered Democrats". Although this worked out well for Clinton in the South, it doesn't mean the Democrats will do well in the South during the general election.

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Hillary Clinton's Firewall in the Deep South

Without these 10 early LANDSLIDE wins, Bernie Sanders currently leads 17 to 13 in the remaining States that have also already voted (those outside of the deep South) — and of those, Bernie lost 4 States by narrow margins — of which 2 were razor-thin.

Iowa (with Sanders losing 6 out 6 coin tosses: link)
Clinton 49.9%
Sanders 49.6%

Missouri (with Sanders conceding without a recount: link)
Clinton 49.6%
Sanders 49.4%

Massachusetts (Questionable results: link and link)
Clinton 50.1%
Sanders 48.7%

Clinton 50.3%
Sanders 48.9%

Bernie has been criticized for winning the White vote, because, the higher the percentage of Black voters in any given State, the wider the margins are the losses for Bernie. Sanders has worked for civil rights and against racial injustice all his life, but it appears as though many might have thought he was a member of the KKK! (It wasn't a President Sanders who passed a crime bill, a bankruptcy bill or a welfare reform bill in the 1990s — it was a Clinton!)

The image below shows there are still 10 States and Washington D.C. left to vote (and 3 territories not listed). With a HUGE African-American population in D.C., we can reasonably expect Sanders to lose there too. But if Bernie Sanders can win California on June 7th, he could probably win the general election as an Independent in November (I make my case further down in this post.)

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Remaining states to votes

Judging by past primaries (because of the African-American vote), Indiana could also be close — and New Jersey looks much more favorable to Clinton as well. But California has a high population of Latinos, and according to CBS News, in a fairly recent national poll, Sanders leads Clinton by two points: 49 percent to 47 percent — and has a substantial lead over Clinton among Latinos, taking 63 percent to her 31 percent.

But even if Bernie Sanders could win California by a super-landslide, most of the superdelegates will still vote for the "moderate" Clinton. And any piece of paper the Democrats come up with for a platform at their July convention (to get Bernie's supporters to vote for Hillary) will be as worthless an I.O.U. written on toilet paper — you can wipe your butt with it — because it won't mean a darn thing after November 8th if Clinton is elected. To put it bluntly, Clinton can't be trusted to keep all the promises that she has already made..

It has come down to a VERY narrow path for victory for Bernie Sanders as a "Democratic" nominee for the President; but if he were ever to run as an Independent in the 2016 general election, he could actually have a very could chance of winning the Presidency (Of course, cable news stations would never acknowledge this, and are already acting like they know for sure that it's going to be Clinton and Trump.)

But never expect the cable news channels (Fox, MSNBC or CNN) to ever tell you any of this, because it's in THEIR best interests that either Clinton or an establishment Republican wins. That's because if Bernie Sanders wins (with a cooperative Congress) he would raise THEIR taxes, because most of those talking heads you see on TV are all in the top 5% of wage earners — and many are multi-millionaires.

Bernie Sanders would raise the cap for Social Security taxes from $118,500 a year to $250,000 a year (which is in the top 1% of wage earners) to expand benefits and shore up the trust fund. Hillary Clinton or a Republican would not raise the cap. The GOP would turn Social Security it into a piggy bank for hedge funds. And Hillary Clinton thinks $250,000 a year is "middle-class" (Maybe in Manhattan it is.)

Because Senator Bernie Sanders's congressional salary is $174,000 a year, it means he is willing to raise his own taxes, while most memebers of Congress wouldn't raise their own taxes. Most of the other presidential candidates have wanted to cut taxes — but mostly for the top 0.01%.

So this is why Bernie Sanders should run as an Independent — and why he’d win.

Gallop Polling 2016

A recent poll from George Washington University shows Donald Trump is about even (within a margin of error) of Hillary Clinton, but trails Bernie Sanders by 11 points. Most current polls show Clinton beating both Republican front-runners rather handily, but losing to John Kasich — a potential indication that she would have problems against any kind of X-Factor nominee who might emerge from a contested convention. Sanders, by contrast, beats all three Republicans and absolutely trounces Trump. Similarly, Clinton's favorable ratings are dismal, and Sanders' numbers are much better than hers — even though both Democrats seem eminently capable of winning a race against Trump.

But six months before Election Day, Clinton’s not far from Trump in terms of negative favorability ratings, and in some polls, Trump is seen as more trustworthy. So there's still a reason to think Clinton is a weak general election candidate. But whatever other vulnerabilities she may have, polls also suggest that getting young people to support her is unlikely to be one of them.

When asked to pick between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, most young Republicans still favor Trump — by a 44-point margin. But young Republicans really, really dislike Trump. No other Republican presidential candidate has such low favorability ratings among young people. While Clinton leads Trump among young voters, they still overwhelmingly name Bernie Sanders as their favorite candidate. Over the course of the primary, of course, that's hurt Clinton mightily.

And imagine if Independents were allowed to vote. According to CNN/ORC Poll Sanders fares better than Clinton with Independents. Those who call themselves independents now make up 43 percent of the electorate. Indeed, if there was an Independent Party that grouped in all of these voters under one umbrella, that party would be unstoppable.

Going by the data available, it’s clear that independents will propel Donald Trump to the Republican nomination, an Republican-leaning independents will show up in droves to support Trump in November. Conversely, Hillary Clinton has been unable to win the independent vote in any state other than Alabama, which Democrats haven’t carried in a general election since 1976. If the Democrats want to be competitive among independent voters, they’ll have no choice but to nominate Bernie Sanders. As but one example: Clinton won Connecticut's CLOSED PRIMARY (51.5% to 46.8%) with the Black vote and Sanders won Rhode Island's OPEN PRIMARY (54.6% to 43.6%) with Independents.

3 million Independent voters protested New York state's closed primary process, a particularly damaging prospect for non-establishment candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Across the US, at least 43 percent of Americans label themselves as political independents, far exceeding those who identify as Democrats (30 percent) and Republicans (26 percent), according to a 2015 Gallup poll. And of course, Sanders does better in open primaries where everybody can vote.

There's another reason why those stubborn superdelegates should support Sanders: Accordning to one poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton, but only 14 percent of Clinton supporters would not back Sanders (There's no "Hillary or Bust" movement.)

Clinton still remains vulnerable with younger voters, independents and liberals — Sanders holds an advantage over Clinton among them nationally. And while Sanders and Clinton are about equally popular among Democrats, he inspires considerably less animus from independents and Republicans, according to the most recent Economist/YouGov survey.

In an election year that’s produced a slate of notably unpopular frontrunners in both parties, Sanders stands out for his positive image. His average 48 percent favorability rating, by far the highest among the remaining candidates, makes him the only contender save for Ohio Gov. John Kasich who’s not underwater in the eyes of the American public.

Among Republicans: In a recent Fox News poll, 70 percent of their voters said Sanders had the integrity to serve effectively as president, while just 48 percent said the same of Clinton.

Sanders’ senior strategist Tad Devine: "Clinton has shown no capacity to attract meaningful support from young voters and independents. Bernie has a much better chance of winning back the more traditional base Democratic voters than does Hillary winning Indies and young people, and to risk the nomination on her is a real problem for our party. Everybody beats Trump, but Bernie really beats him, and does so in key state polling. And Clinton is actually losing to some Republicans other than Trump.”

H. A. Goodman, a Sanders supporter who regularly writes for the Huffington Post, made a few more recent notes backing the case that Sanders should run as an Independent:

  • He could win the presidency, running as an independent. The myth that Ralph Nader gave us Bush’s Iraq War ignores the fact Hillary Clinton voted for Iraq.
  • If the Democratic Party blatantly ignores the values and beliefs of millions, and then risks a mutiny from an independent campaign because of this hubris, then it’s the DNC that must acquiesce.
  • If you’re a Hillary supporter and fear the repercussions of a Trump presidency if Bernie runs as an independent, then switch to Bernie if he runs an independent campaign [and] you’ll ensure Sanders defeats Trump by a wider margin.
  • Refusing to support Bernie’s independent run, would also be admitting that you don’t truly fear a Trump presidency; you just want to instill that fear into others.
  • A great many Bernie supporters will never support Clinton. On a national stage, Clinton has negative favorability ratings in every single national poll. Beyond the confines of the Democratic establishment, America isn’t a closed Democratic Primary. Bernie Sanders should run as an independent, if he must, since he could easily win the presidency.
  • 43% of American voters identify politically as independent — 44.7% of independents favor Bernie Sanders, while 25.9% choose Trump, and only 8.6% side with Hillary Clinton.
  • In a Huffington Post piece titled Only Voter Suppression Can Stop Bernie Sanders: Bernie is the one national candidate who people like the more they get to know him. As people learn more about Clinton, Trump, and Cruz, they like them less. As the country learns more about Bernie, they like him more.
  • Trump’s candidacy is almost a third-party run; a great many Republicans will not vote for him on Election Day.
  • Why should Bernie Sanders run an independent campaign? Because he’d win.

The ultimate test could come on June 7th — when California votes. Recent polls show Sanders trailing Clinton by only single digits, but he stands to benefit from the support of California’s independent voters and Latinos, who are allowed to participate in the state’s Democratic primary. Trump is also gunning for many of the same voters, encouraging independents (“No Party Preference”) to re-register by the May 23 deadline to votes in the State's primary. Hillary Clinton won California in 2008 (but lost the primary to Obama); but if Sanders can win the State in 2016, that could be a clear sign that (if he isn't nominated to be the Democratic nominee), he should run as a third party candidate in the general election — because we should never under-estimate Bernie Sanders — because he could win.

2008 Californian Democratic Primary

  • Hillary Clinton 2,608,184 votes (51.5%)
  • Barack Obama 2,186,662 voted (43.2%)
  • John Edwards 193,617 votes (3.8%)

1992 Democratic Primary

  • Bill Clinton 1,359,112 votes (47.5%)
  • Edmund Brown Jr. 1,150,460 votes (40.1%)
  • Paul Tsongas 212,522 (7.42%)

Pew Research Confirms: The Electorate is Ripe for Bernie Sanders

  • 39% identify as independents
  • 32% as Democrats
  • 23% as Republicans
  • 48% of independents identify as Democrats or lean Democratic
  • 39% of independents identify as Republicans or lean Republican

This is the highest percentage of independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling. And most independents, (when allowed to vote) chose Bernie Sanders — more so than Clinton and Trump combined.

Back in 1992, Bill Clinton, after winning California and the nomination, he also ended up winning the general election when an independent was also in the race. Ralph Nader won 2,882,955 votes in the 2000 general election, who told Politico that if Independent voters could vote in then primaries last Tuesday, Bernie Sanders would have won them all.

Bernie Sanders has thus far earned 8,967,401 popular votes — despite widespread allegations of voter fraud in the Democratic primary. Also, imagine if the Democratic primary had started today, instead of February 1, 2016 — and that their were no closed primaries. Now imagine how many votes Bernie Sanders would have in a general election.

1992 General Election:

  • Bill Clinton (Democrat) 44,909,889 votes (43.1%)
  • George H. W. Bush (Republican) 39,104,545 votes (37.4%)
  • Ross Perot (Independent) 19,742,267 votes (18.9%)

2000 General Election

  • George W. Bush (Republican) 50,456,002 votes (47.87%)
  • Al Gore, Jr. (Democrat) 50,999,897 votes (48.38% )
  • Ralph Nader (Green Party) 2,882,955 votes (2.74%)

2016 General Election:

  • Bernie Sanders (Independent/Progressive Party/Berniecrat) (My guess: 40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (Democrat/Republican Lite) (My guess 31%)
  • Donald Trump (Republican/Democratic Lite) (My guess: 29%)

* I hope Bernie and Jane reconsider....

The Numbers

Clinton has won big in States with closed primaries limited to registered Democrats and those with high populations of African-Americans, while Sanders has won big in open primaries where independents can participate. From the perspective of the Democratic establishment, the closed primaries are then doing their job: serving as a firewall to protect the party's preferred choice.

Michigan was the exception with a high population of African-Americans (and was considered an upset for Sanders), but even that was close.
Sanders 49.8%
Clinton 48.3%

Missouri, even with a high populations of African-Americans, was also close, but favoring Clinton.
Clinton 49.6%
Sanders 49.4%

Closed primaries and caucuses that already voted which resulted in wins for Clinton:

Clinton 59.8%
Sanders 39.2%

Clinton 64.5%
Sanders 33.3%

Nevada (Rigged by Senator Harry Reid)
Clinton 52.6%
Sanders 47.3%

New York
Clinton 58.0%
Sanders 42.0%

Clinton 55.6%
Sanders 43.5%

Mixed primaries and caucuses that already voted which resulted in wins for Clinton:

Arizona: The primary is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party’s primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party’s primary.
Clinton 57.6%
Sanders 39.9%

Connecticut: The primary is considered closed as neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party allows any voter but those registered with their party to vote.
Clinton 51.5%
Sanders 46.8%

Illinois: Voters do not have to register with a party, but they do have to choose, publicly, which party’s ballot they will vote on at the primary election.
Clinton 50.3%
Sanders 48.9%

Iowa: The primary is closed, but voters are allowed to change their political party affiliation on election day.
Clinton 49.9%
Sanders 49.6%

Maryland: Parties decide who may vote in their primary election and generally close it to all voters except those registered with their party.
Clinton 63.0%
Sanders 33.2%

Never Trump, Always Sanders

1 comment:

  1. Now #BernieSanders should run with #JillStein as VP in the #GreenParty in the general election. #RalphNader and #RobertReich can hold posts.