Sunday, July 7, 2013

First 6 months in 2013 - 7.5 Million Jobs Lost

So far, according to government reports, 7.5 million Americans lost their jobs in the first 6 months of 2013.

Please read the first paragraph VERY carefully:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics 11.8 million Americans are currently unemployed -- and of those counted as unemployed, 4.3 million were long-term unemployed (they were jobless for longer than 6 months) --- meaning that, according to the BLS, the great majority of the unemployed in the U-3 rate (the balance of 7.5 million out of 11.8 million) had lost their jobs only recently...within the last 6 months --- this year --- in 2013.

Now my question: How could that be? What happened to everybody else who lost their jobs in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012? Of the millions who did lose jobs over the last 5 years, the BLS is essentially saying that 4.3 million of them remained long-term unemployed from those 5 years, and that everybody else either got a job, went on disability, retired or died (or are living in a spare room with food stamps like myself and are not being counted at all.)

As of June 15, 2013 the Department of Labor reports that 2.8 million unemployed Americans receive regular state unemployment benefits (the short term unemployed, less than 6 months) and 1.7 million receive the federally extended benefits (long-term unemployed, over 6 months --- which benefits are being phased out this year). Of the 11.8 million counted as unemployed, a total of 4.5 million receive UI benefits in all programs (meaning 38% of the unemployed current qualify for, or applied for, unemployment insurance benefits.)

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 8.7 million jobs were already lost between the start of the recession in December of 2007 and June of 2009. Also, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 2011, 8.1 million were job losers (that is, those workers who lost their jobs and those who completed temporary jobs).

The U.S. Department of Labor reports 6.8 million net new jobs were created over the previous 3 years 4 months (From March 2010, all of 2011, all of 2012, up until June 2013)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 3.2 million high school graduates in 2012. There were also 3.4 million in 2013 --- so assume 3 million for 2010 and 2011 as well for an estimated 12 million high school graduates for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that the total U.S. prison population declined for the second consecutive year to under 1.6 million --- so at least for 2010 and 2011, this is not a factor at all. And if someone does goes to jail, doesn't the employer sometimes replace their job?

So let's now assume that the majority of long-term unemployed (or those who lost jobs in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012) all went on disability or retired...

8.7 million jobs lost (December 2007 to June 2009).
-1.4 million Social Security disability awards (not claims) during that same period of time.
7.3 million (balance) If they go on SSDI, are their jobs replaced by the employers?
-3.9 million Social Security retirements, early or otherwise, for all of 2010, 2011, 2012 until June 2013.

That equals a balance of 3.4 million --- so let's also assume they are part of the 4.3 million long-term unemployed.

Now add 7.5 million for the "short-term" unemployed in 2013 (jobless less than 6 months) for a total of 11.8 million unemployed.

So then, what happened to 12.0 million high school graduates for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 (not counting college graduates) There were 6.8 million new net jobs were created (added over past 40 months) from March 2010 to June 2013 --- so tell me, are 5.2 million unemployed high school graduates living at home? (Not even counting college graduates). The chart below show all graduates, JUST for the 2012/2013 school year alone. (click on image for a link to the stats.)

High school and college graduates 2013

And how many of the 6.8 million jobs that were created were part-time and/or filled by foreigners in guestworker visa programs?

I submit that there are at least 8 million unemployed Americans with no income at all who are not even counted by the government in their labor reports.

Wall Street Journal: Pumps and Dumps Jobs Report 

Count the long-term unemployed 99ers in 2013

1 comment:

  1. It is becoming obvious that high unemployment is a deliberate policy of Washington. What could be better for corporate interests than millions of desperate workers?