Monday, July 8, 2013

Basic Government Stats (July 2013) by Bud Meyers

Jobs, Population, Unemployment, Disability and other Stats

On July 5, 2013 Robert Oak at the Economic Populist reported, "Those forced into part time work is now 8,226,000, an increase of 322,000 from last month...Of those considered employed, a whopping 27,270,000 of them are in part-time jobs, for whatever reason. That's 18.9% of people employed are in part-time jobs, a very high ratio."

On "Fox and Friends" this morning (July 8, 2013) Charles Payne said only 47% of the labor force works full time. When I Googled this I found an article dating back to January 2011 from Business Insider which said:

* Part time employed for economic reasons: 8.931 million people. This concerns people who want a full-time job but can't get one.

* Part time employed for non-economic reasons: 18.184 million people. Non-economic reasons include school or training, retirement or Social Security limits on earnings, but also childcare problems and family or personal obligations. (Total part-time: 27.1 million in 2011 --- about the same as in 2013.

James Pethokoukis at the American Enterprise Institute) reports:

1. The economy lost 240,000 full-time workers last month, according to the more volatile household survey, while gaining 360,000 part-time workers. In other words, the entire increase in the household measure of employment was accounted for by persons working part-time for economic reasons. The under-employment rate (U-6) surged to 14.3% from 13.8%.

2. Does ObamaCare explain the poor jobs mix? From the econ team at First Trust: Given the volatility in these data series, we would not put too much emphasis on one month’s worth of data. However, it’s consistent with the large payroll gains for retail as well as restaurants & bars and probably shows some firms who would be hiring full-timers are hiring part-timers to avoid ObamaCare.

3. Part-time America: There are 28 million part-time workers in the US today vs. 25 million before the Great Recession. There are 116 million full-time workers in the US today vs. 122 million before the Great Recession. In other words, 19% of the (smaller) US workforce is part time vs. 17% before the Great Recession

4. Some context: Even at 195,000 jobs a month, the US would not, according to Brookings, return to pre-Great Recession employment levels until 2021. The “jobs gap” remains huge.

5. If the labor force participation rate were back to pre-recession levels, the unemployment rate would be 11.1%. And even accounting for America’s aging, the U-3 rate would be roughly 9.1%, according to Goldman Sachs

Daily Caller (July 5, 2013) " That survey of employers showed they added 202,000 private-sector jobs, but 107,400 of them were in the sectors that rely heavily on low wage, part-time employees, such as restaurants, retail trade and employment services.”

Stats for the U.S. as of July 2013 (except where stipulated)

313,914,040 2012 Population (est.)
- 308,745,538 2010 population (from U.S. Census)
= 5,168,502 2.6 million annual population growth (216,667 a month)
245,552,000 Civilian non-institutional population (16 years and older)
316, 207,202 Current population (July 2013)
- 245,552,000 Civilian non-institutional population (16 years and older)
= 70,655,202 Civilian non-institutional population (under 16)
3,400,000 High school graduates 2012/2013 School Year

Jobs Needed for Population Growth

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics. (July 2011) "The number of jobs needed per month to keep up with population growth depends on the rate of population growth and the participation rate. The CBO is projecting the participation rate to fall to 63% by 2021 due to an aging population." --- * Congressional Budget Office Labor Force Projections Through 2021 (PDF)

The following table uses the CBO projections and provides an estimate of the jobs needed per month (per the household survey) to hold the unemployment rate steady.

Jobs needed over next 12 months to hold unemployment rate constant Current Projections (As of July 2011)
BLS CBO CBO modified Participation Rate Unchanged
Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-12 Jun-12
Civilian non-institutional population, 16 and over (millions) 239.5 242.8 241.3 241.3
Participation Rate (Percent) 64.1% 64.6% 64.6% 64.1%
(63.5% as of June 2013)
Labor Force (millions) 153.4 156.8 155.9 154.7
Employed (millions) 139.3 142.4 141.5 140.4
Unemployed (millions) 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.2
Unemployment Rate 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2%
Jobs needed to hold unemployment rate constant (millions) - 3.1 2.2 1.1
Jobs needed per month (180,666 average) - 260,000 187,000 95,000

What others say about this...

Robert Oak at the Economic Populist says, "Just to keep up with population growth, we need at least 100,000 jobs per month or 1.2 million a year."

The Center for Human Capital Studies (Current jobs calculator) To maintain the current unemployment rate of 7.6%, we need 107,096 jobs a months. (1.3 million a year)

Mike Thornton: (April 2011) "The US needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to simply keep up with new entrants to the workforce."

Calculated Risk (July 2011) "It would take 187,000 jobs added per month over the next year to hold the unemployment rate steady if the participation rate rises to 64.6%. If the participation rate stays steady, it will take 95,000 jobs added per month."

New York Times (July 2011) "The economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with normal population growth." (page 2)

Dean Baker: Center for Economic and Policy Research (July 2011) "The Congressional Budget Office projects that the underlying rate of labor force growth is now just 0.7 percent annually. This comes to roughly 1,050,000 a year or just under 90,000 a month."

The Hamilton Project (March 2012) "At a job creation rate of 208,000 per month (the average rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s), it will take until 2020 to close the jobs gap."

Paul Krugman: "We really should be adding more than 300,000 jobs a month [3.6 million a year], not fewer than 200,000 [2.4 million a year]. We would need more than five years of job growth at this rate to get back to the level of unemployment that prevailed before the Great Recession."

Bud Meyers: "I don't understand all the charts and a graphs, but with 3.4 million high school graduates every year, I'd say 283,333 jobs a month are needed to hold the current unemployment rate steady. And if someone retires, goes on disability or dies, the job will need to be replaced...unless the work is offshored to a foreign country, insourced on a guestworker visa, automated/robotized, or the extra work is forced onto their co-workers. Or the job could be split in two, creating two part-time jobs to avoid the ObamaCare mandate."

Quick facts -- Where is everybody?

144,058,000 Employed - 27.2 million have part-time jobs and 7 million hold multiple jobs
+11,777,000 Unemployed (4.5 million receive UI benefits)
= 155,835,000 Total civilian labor force (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
245,552,000 Civilian non-institutional population (16 years and older)
- 155,835,000 Civilian labor force
= 89,717,000 [balance]
(151,380,749) Wage earners per Social Security Administration* (2011)
Tax Year 2010 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
Tax Year 2009 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
Tax Year 2008 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
= 89,717,000 [balance]
- 52,338,781 Social Security - retired, disabled, etc. (excluding children)
= 37,378,219 [balance]
- 2,239,800 Prison population (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
= 35,138,419 [balance]
- 17,487,475 Colleges and University enrollments
= 17,650,944 [balance]
- 8,000,000 (Estimate) 99ers no longer counted by the BLS
= 9,650,944 [balance]
- 633,782 Homeless people (PDF)
= 9,017,162 [balance]
- 205,388 Earning $1 million or more X 2 are trust fund babies
= 8,811,774 [balance]
- 3,400,000 High school graduates 2012-2013 School Year
= 5,411,774 [balance]
- 924,333 Staffed beds in registered hospitals
4,487,441 [balance] Non-institutional population


Invisible people, mountain people and missing people?

Social Security Details*

36,719,288 Social Security retired
8,827,795 Social Security disabled
4,091,586 Social Security widowed
2,700,112 All others (except children)
52,338,781 Total

Long-term Unemployment

Forbes (July 2013) "The U-6 [unemployment rate] essentially doubled between 2007 and 2009...One reason that the U-6 rate remains so high is because it’s so hard to get back into the workforce once you’ve been out for months — whether perception or reality, many employers see these would-be workers as damaged goods."

Study (PDF) (March 2013) "Recently, the sharp rise in long-term unemployment has renewed interest in duration dependence; according to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, long-term unemployment may produce a self-perpetuating cycle wherein protracted spells of unemployment heighten employers reluctance to hire those individuals, which in turn leads to even longer spells of joblessness."

As the chart below shows, the longer one is out of work, the least chance they have of getting a call back.

*** WHAT IS THIS? A TOTAL OF INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE RETURNS? "A grand total of 239.3 million tax returns are expected to be filed with the Internal Revenue Service during Calendar Year (CY) 2012 (PDF)

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