Monday, July 8, 2013

Mitt Romney's 47% is really 54.5%

Mitt Romney's 47% is really 54.5% --- they don't work or pay any taxes at all --- as per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 5, 2013.

Out of a U.S. population of 316, 207,202 --- 245,552,000 are of working age (16 and older) but only 144,058,000 are employed --- and only 102,912,000 of these work-full-time (over 35 hours a week) --- or 42% of the population. And that also equates to 45.5% of the population (144,058,000) who works and pays some form of taxes, meaning, 54.5% don't work at all (so they don't pay any federal income taxes or payroll taxes).

Put another way, 58.7% of all working-aged Americans have a job (full or part-time); and 41.3% do not. Last data available for the Social Security Administration shows 50% of the work force nets $26,966 a year or less (meaning, the very top earners in the bottom 50% quintile nets $26,966 a year and everyone else below them earns less).

245,552,000 (the civilian non-institutional population over 16 years old) is 77.6% of 316, 207,202 (the total estimated population to date in July 2013)

155,835,000 is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as the total labor force, which equals 144,058,000 (employed) + 11,777,000 (unemployed). As an aside: For 2011 the Social Security Administration showed 151,380,749 that paid payroll taxes on earned wages reported on a W-4 form.

155,835,000 is also 49.28% of 316, 207,202 (the total U.S. population), and 155,835,000 (the total work force) is 63.5% (the labor participation rate) of 245,552,000 (the civilian non-institutional population over 16 years old.) The current civilian labor force participation rate of 63.5% ties June 1979, September 1981 and August 2012 --- The highest on record was in the first 4 months in George W. Bush's term (2000) at 67.3% (although Bill Clinton's administration took the credit for job creation).

Forbes (December 2012) by Stephen Bronars, a Senior Economist at Welch Consulting, Adjunct Professor of Economics at Georgetown with a Ph.D. in Economics from University of Chicago: "I estimate that there are over four million fewer labor force participants than what would have occurred if age-adjusted participation rates maintained their pre-recession trend."

27,270,000 (part-time workers) is 11.10% of 245,552,000 (civilian non-institutional population)
27,270,000 (part-time workers) is 17.49% of 155,835,000 (work force)
27,270,000 (part-time workers) is 18.92% of 144,058,000 (those employed)

144,058,000 (those employed) is 92.44% of 155,835,000 (work force)
144,058,000 (those employed) is 58.66% of 245,552,000 (civilian non-institutional population)
144,058,000 (those employed) is 45.55% of 316, 207,202 (total U.S. population) --- and of those,18.92% (27,270,000) are part-time (7 million of those employed (4.9%) hold multiple jobs.

NOTE: Reconcile the difference of 6,721,000 between 144,058,000 (those employed) and 137,337,000 (work in all industries).

Full time work is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as 35 hours or more per week; and part time work is 34 hours or less per week. Here they say total persons at work in all industries: 137,337,000 -- But here they say 144,058,000 are employed, and that 102,912,000 worked 35 hours or more a week and 34,425,000 worked 34 hours or less a week).

That would mean that 42% of all working aged Americans (102,912,000 of 245,552,000) that are16 years of age and over) works full-time (35 hours a week or more) and 14% ( 34,425,000 of 245,552,000 that are 16 years old and over) works part-time (34 hours or less a week)

Of 144,058,000 (those employed) 71.43% works full-time and 23.89% works part-time

U-3 unemployment rate --- 11,777,000 (unemployed) is 7.55% of 155,835,000 (work force) 86,770,000 (not in work force).

U-6 unemployment rate --- 14.6% (22.6 million) --- Total unemployed (11.8 million) plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force (2.6 million*) plus total employed part time for economic reasons (8.2 million) = 22.6 million (+ 7.4 million 99ers = 30 million)

27,270,000 total part-time workers (8.2 million for economic reasons + 19.07 million for non-economic reasons)

*Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in June. Discouraged workers are persons NOT currently looking for work "because they believe no jobs are available for them". The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in June had NOT searched for work "for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities".

Forbes (December 2012) "In this recovery, the official BLS count of “marginally attached” workers underestimates by 40% the number of people who left the labor force because they stopped looking for work."

For other links and stats:

144,058,000 Total employed, of which 27.2 million have part-time jobs for non-economic reasons and 8.2 million work part-time for economic reasons --- while 7 million hold multiple jobs
+11,777,000 Unemployed (4.5 million receive UI benefits)
= 155,835,000 Total civilian labor force (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
245,552,000 Civilian non-institutional population (16 years and older)
- 155,835,000 Civilian labor force
= 89,717,000 [balance]
(151,380,749) Wage earners per Social Security Administration* (2011)
142,892,051
140,494,127
142,450,569
Tax Year 2010 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
Tax Year 2009 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
Tax Year 2008 - individual income tax returns (XLS)
= 89,717,000 [balance]
- 52,338,781 Social Security - retired, disabled, etc. (excluding children)
= 37,378,219 [balance]
- 2,239,800 Prison population (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
= 35,138,419 [balance]
- 17,487,475 Colleges and University enrollments
= 17,650,944 [balance]
- 8,000,000 (Estimate) 99ers no longer counted by the BLS
= 9,650,944 [balance]
- 633,782 Homeless people (PDF)
= 9,017,162 [balance]
- 205,388 Earning $1 million or more X 2 (Trust fund babies)
= 8,811,774 [balance]
- 3,400,000 High school graduates 2012-2013 School Year
= 5,411,774 [balance]
- 924,333 Staffed beds in registered hospitals
4,487,441 [balance] Non-institutional population (16 years and older)

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Invisible people, mountain people and missing people?

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