The Jobless Numbers: A Prologue to Farce and Tragedy

I am a big fan and great admirer of Robert Reich. After reading his latest article at the Huffington Post about the unemployment numbers, I felt compelled to comment. (It's worth mentioning he was the Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 1997).

He stated in his article that "the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which measures the unemployment rate every month, counts people as unemployed only if they're looking for work. If they're too discouraged even to enter the job market, they're not counted."

Now examine that statement very carefully. What part (or parts) of that sentence just doesn't ring true?

First of all, after someone's unemployment benefits expire, where do they sign in, or who do they report to, to let somebody know that they're still looking for work after their UI benefits expire? How could the Bureau of Labor Statistics possibly know if they are looking for work or not? (Please don't tell me a CPS household survey.)

Secondly, how does someone "re-enter" the work force if they want to be counted? Does this only happen when they get re-hired for work again? This whole notion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics determining this is just plain silly and doesn't hold any credibility.

I wrote to the Bureau of Labor Statistics to ask them about this:

"If the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service and all 50 states' Employment and Security Division had computerized records of EXACTLY when we worked, what we earned, where we were employed, how much tax we paid (or owed), and when we were no longer showing earnings on a W-4 form, can't all this information be easily cross referenced and shared (in part or completely) with the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics?"

It seems this would be fairly easy to do. The Bureau of Labor Statistics would have an EXACT count, at any given time, of how many people are working and how many aren't. They could also say for certain how many people had exhausted all their unemployment benefits but still remain unemployed. And they could also determine EXACTLY what percent of high school and college graduates find jobs after completing school.

Also, I believe the CPA household survey is extremely obsolete and flawed in this day and age of technology.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics wrote me back:

"The QCEW program at BLS does part of what you suggest. They aggregate all the wage and salary data collected by the UI system. The methodology that you suggest for enumerating final exhaustions is a good one but you would also need to account for the high volume of churn in the UI system. Any claimants have been through the EUC 2008 system, as an example, two and even three times. To enumerate the final exhaustees, as you indicated, you would want those people who had received at least some UI during a specified time period, and then do not now show up on wage records and are not currently receiving UI. This has been proposed to some research consortiums. The primary issue is that the UI data (both wage, salary and benefit) is governed by some aggressive confidentiality laws so it’s not the case that anyone can simply get direct access to these systems."

Confidentiality laws? But, I digress...a little over two years ago (113 weeks ago) we had 15.7 million people unemployed in October of 2009 when the unemployment rate was at 10.2%. But as Robert Reich indicated, 10 million jobs were lost since the recession began, and because at one time, there were indeed 10 million people who were receiving either state or federal unemployment benefits. And by now they have all exhausted their jobless benefits (99 weeks was the max).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says they "cannot determine the duration of unemployment for persons who had been unemployed for longer than 2 years for data prior to January 2011." Why can't they? Hmmmm?

They also say (as of December 2011) "The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 6 months or longer) was 5.6 million and accounted for 42.5 percent of the unemployed." Wow! Talk about under-reporting the jobless numbers! Two years ago we had 15.7 million, remember? And 10 million were once receiving UI benefits. How many net new jobs were created since October 2009?

NOTE: Per the current report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics... The BLS concludes that only 13.1 million (8.5%) are unemployed in a work force with a "participation rate" of 64%. 13.1 million is 8.5% of a workforce totaling 154.1 million people (154.1 million is 64% of 240.8 million if we had a "participation rate" of 100% for full employment). 240.8 million MINUS 154.1 million in 64% work force = 86.7 million Americans of working age that doesn't have a job. (Subtract those that are retired, on disability, etc.)

Barely 3 million net new jobs were created since October of 2009, so at the very least, 12.7 million Americans must have been out of work for over 2 years or more - - - yet the media is parroting the Bureau of Labor Statistics by saying "1.9 million have been out of work for 99 weeks or more". That is numerically impossible.

And we also had many more layoffs since October of 2009. Add to that, we also had another 6 million high school and college graduates since that time as well. They ALL didn't just "drop out" of the labor force and move in to their parent's basement...they're just not counted. They've all just been swept under the statistical rug by the Department of Labor.

A few may have retired with reduced Social Security benefits if they were 62 or older, and some applied for Social Security Disability. Some might have left the country, and some could have started their own business. And some are being supported by others, as some passed away....but what about everybody else? Where did everybody else go?

According to www.shadowstats.com, the broadest official government measure of unemployment (U-6) is now at 15.2%. This includes "discouraged" workers -- if they've been "discouraged" for less than one year. The SGS unemployment figure of 22.4% includes the long-term unemployed and "discouraged." (I had earlier calculated almost 20% with 27 million now unemployed. That's 1 out every 5 working age adults.)

An update from the U.S. Department of Labor:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

"Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2012 scheduled for February 3, 2012, population controls that reflect the results of Census 2010 [rather than 2000] will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process. Historical data will not be revised to incorporate the new controls; consequently, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods."

Re-adjusted seasonal adjustments and revised census data should make for some ghastly unemployment reports in the near future.

Both major political parties skew the statistics for political purposes. But the Occupy Wall Street movement isn't a figment of your imagination, they're protesting for a reason...the numbers prove it.

And if you've read this far, you'll appreciate this jewel from James Madison in 1882:

"A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance: And a people who mean to be their own Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives."

My Related Posts:

• Where did 15 million jobless Americans go?
• 15 Million Americans Jobless Over 2 years
• Long-Term Unemployment is Here to Stay
• 6 Million Graduates Not Counted in Unemployment Rate
• The unemployed didn't just "drop out"
• Who will "Live Free or Die" in 2012?

The unemployed didn't just "drop out"

...they were pushed out of the labor force.

In a New York Times article today, titled Instead of Work, Younger Women Head to School, the author writes "Workers are dropping out of the labor force in droves, and they are mostly women."

The author goes on to say "These young women seem to be postponing their working lives to get more education. There are now — for the first time in three decades — more young women in school than in the work force." The article never mentions how many of these young women might have turned to prostitution and/or are working in strip clubs to survive...or to put themselves through school.

Lawyer turns topless dancer to pay the bills: How many have already graduated from school but still can't find work? Hard times push more women to strip clubs: "Among the usual aspiring actresses and dancers, there are more college students, single mothers trailing toddlers, health and office professionals and even a few age-defying grandmothers — all looking for well-paid work."

And how many are coping with the recession by growing and selling pot?

First of all, people don't voluntarily "drop out of the labor force" as the Bureau of Labor Statistics claim. They are just no longer counted after a certain amount of time after their unemployment benefits expire (labeled as "discouraged workers") The New York Times article just helped to perpetuate the myth that unemployed people just "turn on, tune in, and drop out".

Once someone's unemployment runs out, there's no place where one goes to sign in every week to show that they're still actively looking for work. After a certain amount of time the Bureau of Labor Statistics just arbitrarily makes the assumption they "gave up looking for work". But how could the BLS possibly know who's still looking for work and who was evicted and living in a homeless shelter? The BLS just bases their conclusions on who's exhausted all their unemployment benefits.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics denies this, saying they do not get any data from the state's unemployment offices (and rely on bogus household surveys), but yet the BLS posts the exact numbers of those who are receiving state and federal benefits in their monthly reports (subject to change every month when updated).

Secondly, only those who once had a two-income family (like a husband and wife, with one that's employed and earning enough to pay for food, rent, auto loans, car insurance, and school tuition) can the scenario that this article presents be possible. Or maybe the young women who are going to school also live at home with their parents, and they pay for their school and living expenses. Or maybe they work in a strip club.

But they didn't just "drop out" of the labor force, like kids "drop out" of high school. This maligns the unemployed as quitters or failures. As if they "dropped out of society", or voluntarily quit an assigned task, or failed at completing something. As if they were "losers".

In the real world, when some loses their only source of income, they look for a job to pay for food and shelter, unless they have the luxury and good luck to have someone else pay for their living expenses. They don't just "drop out" and casually return to college to improve their jobs skills.

American society has always maligned those who lost jobs and couldn't find employment through no fault of their own: “Three or four million heads of households don’t turn into tramps and cheats overnight, nor do they lose the habits and standards of a lifetime. They don’t drink any more than the rest of us, they don’t lie any more, and they’re no lazier than the rest of us. An eighth or a tenth of the earning population does not change its character which has been generations in the moulding, or, if such a change actually occurs, we can scarcely charge it up to personal sin.” – Harry Hopkins, Federal relief administrator under Franklin D. Roosevelt – 1933

The New York Times article today also says "412,000 young women have dropped out of the labor force entirely in the last two and a half years", but how can that be? Almost two and a half years ago in October of 2009 15.7 million Americans were unemployed when the unemployment rate was 10.2%. Only 412,000 young women are unemployed today?

And since then, all those people have already exhausted all unemployment benefits that they may have once been entitled to and qualified for - - - so most are no longer being counted. Since October of 2009 only 3 million jobs were created, and many more people have been laid off since that time. And now 7.2 million are currently receiving either state or federal benefits.

Also, since October of 2009 six million young people have already graduated from high school or college (not counting drop-outs), and most are still not finding jobs - - but instead, many are participating in Occupy protests.

The number in that New York Times article today is way out of line with reality. And to call them "drop outs" is disrespectful.

Break down: Nearly 18 million Americans have at some point received federally funded extended unemployment benefits since 2008. In October of 2009 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the national unemployment rate was at 10.2% with 15.7 million Americans out of work. In May of 2010 there were 10 million receiving either state or federal UI benefits. In December of 2011 we have 7.2 million who are currently receiving either state or federal benefits, and 13.3 million are current being reported by the BLS as being unemployed. Almost a total of 18 million received UI benefits and 6 million Americans also graduated from high school and college in the last two and half years, but only 3 million jobs were created.

Related Posts:

Where did 15 million jobless Americans go?

Simple Math Proves Jobs Report a Lie

Where did 15 million jobless Americans go?

Catherine Rampell at the New York Times writes: "Since June 2008, when Congress first created the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, nearly 18 million Americans have at some point received federally funded extended unemployment benefits." (federal extended benefits, not counting those who only received regular state benefits).

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics, currently only 3 million people now receive federal extended benefits (EUC). So where did 15 million-plus unemployed Americans go?

And how many more are there who quit jobs, were independent contractors, or new to the job market (or for other reasons) and didn't even qualify for unemployment benefits?

Now add to that 3.7 million who are currently receiving regular State benefits (up to 26 weeks). Last week it was reported by the labor department that we had 366,000 initial jobless claims, which is a measure of the number of new jobless claims filed by individuals seeking to receive State jobless benefits (mostly layoffs in the service industry, which is now our prime industry).

Many economists have argued that, besides being compassionate, unemployment benefits have stimulated the economy. That’s because people who receive jobless benefits go out and spend their checks very quickly after receiving them, and spending ripples through the rest of the economy.

Former White House adviser Jared Bernstein considers unemployment benefits to be one of the most efficient forms of economic stimulus in existence. Mark Zandi, an economic adviser for Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign, has estimated that each dollar spent on extending unemployment benefits generates $1.61 in economic growth. Meanwhile, according to an analysis from the National Employment Law Project (NELP), the Republicans' bill would result in $22 billion in lost economic growth and cost at least 140,000 jobs next year.

But some economists worry that longer periods for benefits may delay the job market recovery. By definition, jobless benefits make unemployment less uncomfortable, and so on the margins they may discourage idle Americans from going back to work if they have the option.

But according to a new study, extending unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless is not a major cause of the high U.S. unemployment rate. Read my Op-Ed piece: The Truth about Unemployment Benefits.

Benefits generally don’t cover more than half of a worker’s lost wages, and they’re capped at a maximum amount. In many states, the cap is quite low relative to the cost of living and local wages, so there is probably still a strong incentive for most unemployed workers to start earning higher wages again instead of receiving benefit checks.

A new White House report on jobless benefits shows average weekly unemployment benefits received per worker, the maximum weekly benefit granted in that state, and the share of a worker’s lost wages that jobless benefits cover. (click here for chart)

Another variable to bear in mind when thinking about how extended jobless benefits are interacting with unemployment rates is the employer side of the puzzle. After all, unemployment isn’t only about Americans’ work incentives; it’s also about employers’ willingness to hire.

In October, there were 3.3 million job openings, but 13.3 million unemployed workers, according to the Labor Department. That means that according the their own numbers, even if every single open job was filled with a willing worker, more than 10 million Americans would still be pounding the pavement.

But this blogger says there are many, many more...almost 27 million. And the Republicans infer they're all lazy (see my links below this article).

Over two years ago in October 2009 (at the supposed "peak" of unemployment) the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the national unemployment rate was at 10.2% with 15.7 million Americans out of work.

So we can safely assume that, even if every single person received the maximum of 99 weeks in unemployment benefits, they would have all expired two months ago...and 15.7 million jobs have not been created in the last 26 months.

Since October 2009, Obama says that according the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3 million jobs were created. During the past 2 years (during that same period of time) 6 million Americans also graduated from high school and college.

15.7 million unemployed in October 2009 + 6 million graduates = 21.7 million MINUS 3 million NET jobs created = 18.7 million out of work. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 13.3 million.

I estimate there are another 8.4 million no longer even being counted because the Bureau of Labor Statistics claimed they stopped looking for work, based on a flawed CPS household survey. (Read my post: Simple Math Proves Jobs Report A Lie)

The Numbers 18 million Total received federal extended jobless benefits since 2008 3 million Currently receiving federal extended jobless benefits 3.7 million Currently receiving regular state jobless benefits 6 million High school and college graduates since October 2009 3 million Jobs reported created in last 26 months (net?) 3.3 million Current job openings 15.7 million Reported unemployed 26 months ago 13.3 million Currently reported unemployed * Social Security retirees and Federal tax returns filed last year

* Data reported on my links to the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be subject to change with their updates after this posting.

Who Dropped Out of the Work Force? Washington Post: This month, the unemployment rate fell from 9.0 percent to 8.6 percent partly because [the labor department claimed 315,000] workers have dropped out of the labor force. Economists have pointed out that the labor force "participation rate" has been steadily shrinking over time due to "structural changes in the economy". The Congressional Budget Office, for instance, expects the participation rate to keep dropping in the years to come, even after the economy recovers. New York Times: "The reason the total number of dropouts has risen more recently is that more unemployed workers have given up applying for jobs. Again, it’s the discouraged-worker narrative." I've been unemployed for 3 years and 2 months. My benefits expired in June 2010. Am I counted as part of the labor force? Or am I labeled as a "discouraged worker" who dropped out of the labor because my benefits expired? How does the labor department know if I'm still looking for work? Once someone's benefits expire, there's nothing to file with any government agency. I contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they basically told me it was a guess based on a CPS survey. They claim not to use State data on who's receiving jobless benefits, and don't cross reference Social Security numbers or measure taxes deducted from employers for the IRS. So how can the labor department possibly know (or even come close to guessing) who dropped out of the labor force? I think it's just a convenient way to sweep millions of American people under the rug. Where did everybody  go?

Related posts:

• Are American War Veterans Lazy?

• What it Means to be Lazy (Written by a Lazy Man)

• Republicans Think I'm A Lazy Black Man

• The Jobless Aren't Lazy, Their Critics Are

• 21 Million Lazy Americans Refused 3 Million Jobs?

• Jim DeMint: "Jobless Gaming the System"

• Why Not Blame the Homeless?

• Take a Drug Test & Work for Free!

• Rich Man Dispels Myth about "Job Creators"

Simple Math Proves Jobs Report a Lie

UPDATE DEC 12, 2011 - Reince Priebus, the head of the Republican National Committee (RNC), was on CNN's Piers Morgan Tonight yesterday and said there were more people unemployed this month than there were last month -- because a bunch of people just threw their arms up in the air and said "I'm not even going to file a paper with the Department of Labor."

File a paper with the Department of Labor? Nobody that I know that's unemployed has ever done that.

It seems that nobody, besides those who work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (and 27 million unemployed Americans) know that the head of the RNC has no clue at all as to what he's talking about.

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics GUESSES how many people stopped looking for work based on a household survey (CPS) conducted by the Bureau of Census.

The only thing unemployed people can file is a claim for unemployment benefits from their State every week -- until they no longer qualify, and then run out of unemployment benefits. After that, they can't file anything, with anyone, at the Department of Labor -- even though they're still out of work. END UPDATE

The jobless numbers are much worse than they say. A conservative estimate is 17% unemployed, but it could be as high as 19%.

"This in not class warfare, it's math." No mister President, it's worse than class warfare when our government doesn't even acknowledge 8.4 million unemployed Americans; when they don't count them in the unemployment rate and doesn't honestly report the statistics to the general public. We want honest math, not sugar-coated convoluted numbers.

A New York Times article that came out yesterday is the subject of my post today. The writer says, "The number of long-term unemployed workers is starting to fall." He, like most in the media, takes the government (the Bureau of Labor Statistics) at their word. I don't, and rarely have, especially when I know politics is involved. It is our U.S. Labor Department's "Lies, damned lies, and Statistics". So I did my own research and math.

First, there are many more than 13.3 million unemployed (8.6%) It's also interesting to note that 16-year-olds who are still in high school and living at home are also counted in the CPA " household survey" as among those who are employed.

Today in December 2011 there are actually over 27 million working age Americans (18 to 65*) with no job at all (and who are not on Social Security, and so therefore, are not counted). So we have a REAL unemployment rate of well over 17% (based on a workforce of 154 million in 2008).

*According to the 2010 Census, there were 40.3 million people 65 and older (13% of population), and 33.5 million are retired and collecting Social Security. Out of a total U.S. population of 308.7 million, 63% are between the ages of 18 and 65 (194.5 million) and 24.0% are under 18 years old.

It is possible to be neither employed nor unemployed by ILO definitions, i.e., to be outside of the "labor force." These are people who have no job and are "not looking for work". Many of these are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. Still others have a physical or mental disability which prevents them from participating in labor force activities.

Typically, employment and the labor force include only work done for monetary gain. Hence, a homemaker is neither part of the labor force nor unemployed. Nor are full-time students nor prisoners considered to be part of the labor force or unemployment. As of 2005, roughly 0.7% of the US population is incarcerated (or 1.5% of the available working population at that time).

But disregarding those people, and with only 141.1 million income tax filers last year for 2010 (out of 194.5 million between the ages of 18 and 65), and if we called this our "new reduced work force", based on the government's own numbers, the actual unemployment rate could really be an astounding 19.1%...higher than many years during the Great Depression, and many more people too.

Let's just go back two years to the present...

Over two years ago in October 2009 (at the supposed "peak" of unemployment) the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the national unemployment rate was at 10.2% with 15.7 million Americans out of work. So we can safely assume that, even if every single person received the maximum of 99 weeks in unemployment benefits, they would have all expired two months ago (and 15.7 million jobs have not been created in the last 26 months).

Since October 2009 Obama says that according the Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 million jobs were created. During the past 2 years during that same period of time 6 million Americans also graduated from high school and college.

15.7 million unemployed + 6 million new people entering the labor force = 21.7 million MINUS 3 million new jobs created = 18.7 million. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 13.3 million unemployed + 2.6 million marginally attached (and not counted in the media-reported U-3 rate) = a total of 15.9 million unemployed.

So right away we see a difference of 2.6 million (15.9 MINUS 13.3 million = 2.6 million) being reported of ALL people who are without any work at all. Add to those 2.6 million "missing workers" all the additional layoffs there were since October 2009.

Job cuts announced in 2011 are up, already more than 2010's full-year total. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 1.2 million separations in 2010 alone, with many more on the way (the media is only reporting half this figure). Now add those 2.6 million "missing workers" + approximately another 2.4 million laid off worker in the last 2 years = 5 million.

The banks have already announced thousands of planned layoffs. Bank of America confirmed it will slash 30,000 jobs over the next few years and HSBC previously said it will also slash 30,000 jobs by 2013. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics' next Mass Layoffs news release for November is scheduled to be released on Thursday, December 22, 2011, at 10:00 a.m. EST)

And today the Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that 7 million people are CURRENTLY receiving unemployment benefits. Remember, over 2 years ago 15.7 million were unemployed and as late of May 2010 when unemployment was reported lower as 9.7% 10 million of those were receiving unemployment benefits (that have since expired), so we know that at any one time over the last 2 years, at least 17 million were receiving some form of unemployment benefits.

So, not even counting those that didn't qualify for unemployment benefits, 17 million who received benefits MINUS the reported 13.3 million unemployed today = 3.7 million MINUS 3 million new jobs created during that time = 700,000. Now add all the layoffs since October 2009 over the last 26 months. (700,000 + approximately another 2.4 million laid off in last 2 years = 3.1 million + 2.6 million "missing workers" = 5.7 million).

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that, just last month alone, 315,000 Americans were reported as "no longer looking for work" and they were no longer counted in the media-reported unemployment rate of 8.6%. How many more are no longer being counted over that last 2 years, or since the "peak" in October 2009? Since keeping track over the last 2 years, I'm estimating about 2.7 million more, for at total of 8.4 million not counted at all, in ANY measure by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (either as unemployed, marginally attached, or discourage...in either the U-3 rate or the higher U-6 rate.)

And most of the 3 million job gains were nothing to brag about either, as most were part-time (or temp) low-paying jobs (like the holiday help that is now being hired).

According to one study, just 7% of those who lost jobs after the financial crisis in 2008 have returned to or exceeded their previous financial position and maintained their lifestyles. About 15 percent say the reduction in their incomes has been drastic and will probably be permanent. Even among those who found work, many made much less than before the downturn. More than two years after the "recovery" officially began, American employers have reinstated less than 25% of the jobs lost during the downturn.

Even among the college-educated, there is one cohort that is still feeling more pain: older workers. More than half of all unemployed workers 45 to 54 years old have been out of work for six months or more.

Some domestic manufacturing may be picking up a little, but employers are not hiring...workers in the United States are increasing their "productivity" (working harder). But these manufacturers could face strains overseas in important export markets, especially if Europe’s debt crisis worsens and leads to another recession. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is also slowing. Manufacturing in China contracted in November for the first time in nearly three years.

One article in the New York Times gleefully reports that the number of long-term unemployed workers (or the number of unemployed) is starting to fall...but they're NOT! They're just no longer being counted in the U-6 rate and described by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as "no longer looking for work" (whether or not they are).

Already, millions of people have exhausted their benefits (10 to 17 million). Failing to renew the federal benefit extensions will cause 5 million additional people (by eliminating federal extensions) to lose benefits next year. Unemployment benefits are believed to have one of the most stimulative effects on the economy, because recipients are likely to spend all of the money they receive quickly and pump more spending through the
economy.

This blogger estimates that of those who already exhausted all their benefits and are no longer counted in Bureau of Labor Statistics' U-3 unemployed rate (media-reported), "marginally attached", or as "discouraged workers" (the U-6 rate) to be approximately 8.4 million (also known as UI "exhaustees", of which about 3 million are "99ers".)

8.4 million (reported as "not looking for work) + 13.3 million reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 rate + 2.6 million reported as marginally attached = 24.3 million + 6 million kids graduated from high school and college = 30.3 million MINUS 3 million jobs were created = over 27 million with no job at all and a REAL unemployment rate of over 17%.

According to the IRS, for 2009 142.2 million individual federal tax returns were files with the IRS. In 2010 it was only 141.1 million, a difference of 1.1 million less. For 2008 there were 154.3 million tax returns filed (what the total work force used to be). That's a difference of 13.2 million less federal tax returns that were filed for 2008 and this year for 2010 (Note: That's about what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports as unemployed. Also note: Even people who received unemployment benefits are required to pay federal taxes and file a federal income tax return).

Today the joke is: 8.6% are unemployed, but 17% are without a job.

And expect more layoffs as companies like American Airlines go through bankruptcy in hopes to be able to rewrite its labor contracts, shed obligations and debt and perhaps reduce the pension commitments. (I recently heard Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines say that these companies shouldn't be bailed out or allowed to go bankrupt, they should stand or fall on their own viability.)

And according to this article, even if the unemployment rate ever does significantly drop, it would be mostly for low-paying jobs, because more and more jobs will continue to go overseas for cheaper labor. Read: Workers of the Western World. In the past 10 years alone we've already lost 56,000 factories and 8.2 million jobs.

One hedge fund manager had said at a recent dinner speech in New York, “The low-skilled American worker is the most overpaid worker in the world.”

China's largest employer is Foxconn, a Taiwanese-owned company which has nearly 1 million employees making products for American companies. (READ "America's Race to the Bottom). The worker's average pay: about $149.24 a month. But for Foxconn, even that is too much for payroll, so now they want to automate jobs such as such as spraying, welding and assembling. Foxconn's CEO unveiled a plan to hire 1 million robots by 2013 (because robots are easier to manage and don't commit suicide).

So I guess low-paying jobs and high unemployment in America is here to stay.

A Better Way to Count the Unemployed If the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service and all 50 states' Employment and Security Division had computerized records of EXACTLY when everybody worked, what they earned, where they were employed, how much tax they paid (or owed), and when they were no longer showing earnings on a W-4 form, can't all this information be easily cross referenced and shared (in part or completely) with the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics? It seems it would be fairly easy to do. You would have an EXACT count, at any given time, of how many people are working and how many aren't. You could also say for certain how many people had exhausted all their unemployment benefits and still remain unemployed. You could also determine EXACTLY what percent of high school and college graduates find jobs after completing school. The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPA "household survey" is extremely obsolete and flawed in this day and age of technology.

6 Million Graduates Not Counted in Unemployment Rate

From high school or college to being unemployed...but not being counted in the unemployment rate. Let's take a jobless walk down Memory Lane (Time-line: Late 2008 to the present in 2011.)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in just the past 2 years we gained 1.8 million NET new jobs, lowering the unemployment rate from 10.2% in October 2009 to 9% in October 2011. They're saying we went from 15.7 million unemployed in October of 2009 to 13.9 million unemployed in October of 2011. REALLY? I suppose this could be true, but only if since October of 2009: No one else was ever laid off and/or no other jobs were outsourced overseas, And EVERYBODY who graduated from high school found a job. Or vice versa, and 1.8 million more Americans were laid off since October 2009 until the present date, but NOBODY who ever graduated from high school during those 2 years had ever found a job (and that's not even counting the 4 million young people who were also attending college). So I further submit that as October 2011, of the 10 million Americans who were at one time receiving either State of Federal unemployment benefits as of May 2010, 7 million have already exhausted all their qualifying UI benefits, and they are no longer being counted in either the media's reported U-3 unemployment rate, or in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reported U-6 rate (as either "marginally attached" or "discouraged workers"); and that the ACTUAL number of Americans that are still unemployed today in closer to 21 million, and not 13.9 million that's being reported today. And because of this, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is saying we have a "reduced work force" and a "lower participation rate". Additionally, by the end of this year, we will also have approximately 4 million more people without UI benefits if they are not funded by congress, bringing to a total of over 11 million people with no job and no income at all. By comparison, 12 million Americans were unemployed at the height of the Great Depression in 1933 when there was no unemployment insurance...but because the population was a lot less then than it is today, the unemployment "rate" was higher.

How many NET new jobs were created since October of 2009 (during the past 2 years) when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 15.7 million Americans were unemployed and the unemployment rate was 10.2%?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that as of October 2011 we have 13.9 million unemployed Americans with an unemployment rate of 9%. (I use links to the New York Times because the Bureau of Labor Statistics link to current updates changes every month).

So according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the past 2 years we're gained 1.8 million net new jobs and the unemployment rate went down from 10.2% to 9%.

We can also assume that many of those newly created private sector jobs were also canceled out by layoffs in the public sector, and that many of the newly created jobs were also part-time low-paying positions as employers have been reducing hours and lowering wages to cut their costs.

So now the question remains, how many Americans were laid off since October 2009 to October 2011, but were never replaced, either due to corporate down-sizing or to outsourcing overseas?

Now the question must also be asked, if according the Bureau of Labor Statistics we also had approximately 2 million young people who graduated from high school since October of 2009 (but did not enter college), were they excluded from the unemployment numbers? If so, then for every high school graduate that's added, that must mean one new NET job must be reported (Could all 1.8 million net new jobs that were created since October 2009 have all been filled by high school graduates?)

We already had 11 million Americans unemployed in January 2009, but just for the sake of argument (to make it much simpler to calculate), let's just go back exactly 2 years ago to October 2009. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics subtracted 1.8 million people from the total of those unemployed since 2 years ago, even after all the additional layoffs since that time, and after 2 million more young people have graduated from high school over the last 2 years.
October 2009	15.7 million unemployed	10.2% unemployment rate 2 years ago
From October 2009 to October 2011	?	< plus 2 million high school grads in 2010 and 2011
From October 2009 to October 2011	?	< minus public sector layoffs due to budget cuts
From October 2009 to October 2011	?	< minus private sector layoffs (permanently laid off or outsourced overseas)
From October 2009 to October 2011	?	< plus NET private and public sector new jobs added (either full-time or part-time)
From October 2009 to October 2011	?	< minus those who couldn't find work, were forced into early Social Security or disability, and were no longer counted
From October 2009 to October 2011	- 1.8 million (difference)	< sub-total + 1.8 million net jobs reducing the jobless rate
October 2011	13.9 million unemployed	9% current unemployment rate today

* According to this source, there has been a total of 863,000 private sector jobs that were created in 2010 - - - which was more private job creation than during the entire 8 year tenure of George W. Bush. This was proceeded with 15.4 million people being unemployed in December of 2009 with an unemployment rate of 10%. So simple arithmetic would tell me that about 1 million more NET jobs were added since that time - - - to make a total of 1.8 million net new jobs (either full-time or part-time) that were created to lower the unemployment rate from 10.2% in October 2009 to 9% in October 2011.

So the final question is: "Who's not being counted and how many invisible Americans are really out there?" (And will the Bureau of Labor Statistics ever tell us the truth?)

Time Line of Pertinent Figures and Facts Reported by the Media covering late 2008 to the present.

January 9, 2009 - America lost 1.9 million in the final four months of 2008 when AIG failed after the credit crisis began in September, bringing the year's total job losses to 2.6 million, or the highest level in more than six decades. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, its highest rate since January 1993. The total number of unemployed Americans rose to 11.1 million. Those working part-time jobs because they couldn't find full-time work or their hours had been cut (the "under-employed) jumped to 8 million, the highest since such records were first kept in 1955. The average hourly work week fell last month to 33.3 hours - the lowest level in history. The average weekly paycheck fell to $611.39 (or $31,792.28 a year).

January 30, 2009 - Bloody Monday: Over 65,400 Jobs Lost - About 200,000 more job cuts have been announced so far this year, according to company reports. Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost over 2008, the highest yearly job-loss total since 1945.

February 6, 2009 - Over the last 13 months, our economy has lost a total of 3.6 million jobs - and continuing job losses in the next few months are predicted.

February 6, 2009 - The Labor Department said that almost 600,000 jobs disappeared in January and that a total of 3.6 million jobs had been lost since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 7.6 percent.

March 6, 2009 - Government data revealed that 651,000 more jobs disappeared in February. The unemployment rate surged to 8.1.“These jobs aren’t coming back,” said John E. Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia in Charlotte, N.C.

April 3, 2009 - Unemployment rate spikes to 8.5%, a 25-year high. 5.1 million jobs have now been lost since the beginning of 2008. Employers cut back the number of hours for their workers as well. The average hourly work week fell to 33.2 hours, the lowest level on record going back to 1964. A record 9 million Americans were "underemployed" in March.

May 8, 2009 - With an additional 539,000 jobs lost last month, the unemployment rate is pushed to 8.9%

July 2, 2009 - The American economy lost 467,000 more jobs in June, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.5 percent in a sobering indication that the longest recession since the 1930s had yet to release its hold. The average length of official unemployment increased to 24.5 weeks — the highest level since the government began tracking such data in 1948. The unemployment rate, 9.5 percent, is the highest since 1983.

October 2, 2009 - The economy shed 263,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August. Though the job market worsened, the pace of deterioration remained markedly slower. As of the third quarter of 2009, there are 12.5 million unemployed native-born Americans, but the broader U-6 measure shows 21 million natives unemployed or underemployed. (Full break down in demographics).

November 14, 2009 - The official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%. While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January. Many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.

January 8, 2010 - Number of long-term unemployed hits highest rate since 1948. In the December unemployment report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of people out of work for 27 weeks or more hit 6.1 million Americans, or 40 percent of all 15.3 million jobless.

February 5, 2010 - The government's monthly job report on Friday showed that the disastrous labor situation plaguing the nation's economy is moderating. But the report also underlines an unsettling reality: 8.4 million jobs have been vaporized since the recession began. The unemployment rate was 9.7% in January. Economists estimate that the country needs to create at least 125,000 jobs per month just to keep up with the nation's expanding job force. That translates into 11 million jobs just to get back to the 5% unemployment rate from before the recession.

June 10, 2010 - Continuing State claims numbered 4.5 million when the U-3 unemployment rate was reported as 9.7% - and at this time nearly 5.4 million Americans were also receiving Federal Extended Benefits for a total of about 10 million people who were either receiving State UI or federal UI benefits. So how could only 8.4 million jobs have been vaporized since the recession began?

July 2, 2010 - 7.9 million jobs lost - many forever. "The nation's working-age population grows by about 150,000 people a month." * So the hole is deeper than it looks. It would take the creation of 10.6 million jobs immediately for the same percentage of the population to be working as was the case three years ago. (Again, how can only 7.9 million jobs be reported lost if 10 million people are collecting benefits? And that's not even counting those who never qualified.) * U.S. Census: The U.S. population increased from 281,424,603 in 2000 to 308,745,538 in 2010. --- 27,320,935 divided by 120 months = 227,674 a month in average population growth.

August 5, 2010 the NY Times reported the tally of laid-off workers that were continuing to claim unemployment benefits was 4.54 million, and an additional 3.90 million people receiving extended unemployment benefits (total: only 8.44 million).

August 18, 2010 - "Suicide is potentially a very large problem as the recession continues, with 6.6 million Americans out of work for six months or more."

December 25, 2010 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics will raise from two years to five years the upper limit on how long someone can be listed as having been jobless. Nearly 10% of the USA's 15.1 million jobless have been looking for work for two years or more. (I, and many others, were laid off in late 2008. Only 10% were jobless for 2 years or more? Bullshit!)

December 29, 2010 - Last month 4.67 million people were receiving federal extended unemployment benefits and 4.06 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits for a total of 8.73 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls when the unemployment rate was reported at 9.8%.

January 10, 2011 - Incredibly, the U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the recession started, though it should have grown by over 4 million workers to keep up with working-age population growth over this period.

January 24, 2011 - There are 1.4 million "very long-term unemployed" who have been out of work for 99 weeks or longer...The 1.4-million figure, calculated using the latest data available as of October, is much smaller than some home-cooked estimates circulated online by advocates for additional weeks of benefits for these "99ers." Some of those estimates are as high as 7 million. BLS: "The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 1 was 9,607,423."

March 18, 2011 - Researchers at the National Employment Law Project (NELP) recently estimated that during 2010 there were 3.9 million workers who were jobless when they received their final payment of eligible unemployment insurance. A report last December from the President's Council of Economic Advisors included a projection of roughly the same number of UI exhaustees during 2011.

June 13, 2011 - About 6.2 million Americans, 45.1 percent of all unemployed workers in this country, have been jobless for more than six months - at its highest since the Great Depression.

July 14, 2011 - More than 6.3 million Americans have been out of work for more than half a year. The average jobless stint now lasts longer than nine months.

August 8, 2011 - About 13.9 million Americans remain unemployed, and of those, 44.4% have been out of a job for more than six months."

September 2, 2011 - The general unemployment rate, which counts only people who looked for work in the previous four weeks, held steady at 9.1 percent. A broader measure that includes people who have looked for work in the last year and people who were involuntarily working part time instead of full time increased slightly to 16.2 percent. The percent of working-age adults who were employed, already at its lowest rate since 1983, was at 58.2 percent.

October 2, 2011 - With an estimated three-quarters of the 14 million unemployed Americans out of work for more than six months and fully half out of work for more than two years, many jobless Americans are falling into despair as repeated attempts to find work come up short.

November 2011 - "The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 22 [2011] was 6,835,604." (Prior year-to-date 8,708,828)

November 4, 2011 - "...an economy that isn’t creating enough jobs to keep up with population growth. While the unemployment rate dipped slightly, from 9.1 to 9.0 percent, the drop was so slight that it might well be a statistical anomaly." A statistical anomaly?!?!

*** I say there are AT LEAST 21 million unemployed, and there are 14 million Americans who have been unemployed for almost 3 years. (I know, I'm one of them.)

E-MAIL TO THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

----- Original Message -----

From: Bud

To: lausinfo@bls.gov

Cc: UI-Reports@uis.doleta.gov ; mwr.helpdesk@bls.gov ; DDDP-Sup@bls.gov ; blsdata_staff@bls.gov ; ppi-info@bls.gov ; Steinberg.Gary@bls.gov

Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2011 8:51 PM

Subject: Unemployment numbers

If the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service and all 50 states' Employment and Security Division had computerized records of EXACTLY when I worked, what I earned, where I was employed, how much tax I paid (or owed), and when I was no longer showing earnings on a W-4 form, can't all this information be easily cross referenced and shared (in part or completely) with the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics?

It seems it would be fairly easy to do. You would have an EXACT count, at any given time, of how many people are working and how many aren't. You could also say for certain how many people had exhausted all their unemployment benefits and still remain unemployed. You could also determine EXACTLY what percent of high school and college graduates find jobs after completing school.

The CPA household survey is extremely obsolete and flawed in this day and age of technology.

Please let me know if there is any effort under way to accomplish this.

Thank You.

Bud Meyers

Will the Bureau of Labor Statistics Ever Tell the Truth?

Arianna Huffington says,"6 million people have now been unemployed for more than six months." I respect and admire her very much, but I must respectfully disagree with her number of 6 million. I say 14 million. There are 14 million Americans who have been unemployed for almost 3 years...I know, I'm one of them.

There are 14 million unemployed Americans who are frustrated and outraged whenever the media parrots the government-given (U-3) unemployment rate of 9%...it grossly untrue. The REAL unemployment rate is closer to 20%. Let me explain why...

What's been glaringly absent from all the jobs reports and subsequent reporting is this:

In early 2009 we had over 14 million people unemployed, and 3 years later we still do, that according the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So if the unemployment rate hasn't changed in almost 3 years (consistently hovering around 9%), and we need 150,000 new jobs a month just to break even, how can that be? Especially if we've only created 1 million jobs in the last year? (private sector jobs canceling out the government sector layoffs). That would indicate that no one else was ever laid off from mid-2009 to the present in late 2011. But we know that's not true because we've had new jobless claims every week since early 2009 right up to the present.

In other words, by classifying all these people whose unemployment benefits were exhausted, and then moving them into the U-6 rate as "discouraged workers" (and then not counting them at all later), is grossly under-counting the REAL unemployment numbers.

Half of the unemployed didn't even qualify for UI benefits, and of those who did, about 7 million have already exhausted their UI benefits (I know, I one of them). And they are no longer being counted at all ("exhaustees" and "99ers" are the same, but only 99ers are sometimes referred to because they were in the few states that actually offered the maximum allowable of 99 weeks in benefits).

I submit, that after carefully following this for 3 years, that there are really closer to 21 million unemployed Americans, and another 20 to 30 million that are "under-employed" (those working one or more low-paying part-time jobs...and another reason why there are no jobs at all for the other 21 million who are unemployed).

The real unemployment rate is nearer to an astounding 20% (almost 1 in 5 of the workforce), with many more unemployed than there were during the height of the Great Depression in 1933 (about 12 million).

9% is very (intentionally) misleading. But it's not entirely the media's fault, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics masterfully sugar-coats the REAL numbers and then spoon-feeds them to the media...no matter what political party holds office. The job crisis is far much worse than the government wants the general public to know (a fear of more uprisings perhaps?)

No, I'm not "Chicken Little", and I don't claim that the sky is falling...I'm just pointing out a few facts.

I've been barking at the moon like a madman for the past 3 years about this, but nothing has changed...21 million Americans are still unemployed and barking at the moon too, whenever they hear the media say, "The unemployment rate went down! We created 80,000 new jobs last month, and we had 3,000 less claims last week!!"

Whoopie!!!

But the truth is, the Bureau of Labor Statistics treats the unemployment numbers like people on a conveyor belt...as people lose UI benefits (and stopped being counted), new people are being laid off ...until they too fall off the conveyor belt and are no longer being counted by the government any more. That's how the "9%" rate has stayed consistent for the last 3 years. The "job creators" (with $2 trillion sitting idle off-shore) certainly didn't create that many jobs.

* The Bureau of Labor Statistics could easily cross reference the data from State unemployment agencies and the W-4's on file at the Office of Social Security Administration if they ever wanted to expose the REAL unemployment rate.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics In October 2010 about 22.0 million young people were either enrolled in high school (9.6 million) or in college (12.4 million). Of the 3.2 million Americans who graduated from high school in 2010, about 2.2 million enrolled in college, almost tying the record set in 2009. Most were regular full-time students (90.4%).  So we had about 1 million young people graduating from high school (but not entering college) in the summer/fall of 2008 when the mass layoffs were underway. In May of 2009 we had 14 million unemployed. In the summer/fall of 2010 we had another 1 million young people graduating from high school (but not entering college). The government is still reporting 14 million unemployed. And in 2011 we can also assume another 1 million young people will be graduating from high school (but not entering college) as the government is still reporting another 14 million unemployed. How many layoffs in 2009 and how many new jobs? How many government workers lost jobs? How many layoffs in 2010 and how many new jobs? How many government workers lost jobs? How many layoffs in 2011 and how many new jobs? How many government workers lost jobs? My Forecast for 2012: About 1 million young people will be graduating from high school (but not entering college). 14 million will still be unemployed and the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9%. No one will have graduated from college or looked for jobs. Only 1 million new jobs were created for the 1 million high school graduates who did not attend college. There were no more layoffs from either the private sector or the public sector. Nothing will have changed, everything will have remained the same...that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Herman Cain says it's our own fault we're unemployed. The Republican's job plan is to cut taxes for the rich and cut food stamps for the poor. If it were up to me, I'd start by freezing and repatriating the $2 trillion American corporations have hoarded away in off-shore banks accounts, money that they would have otherwise been taxed on if it had not been for the Bush tax cuts. Then we could at least start an infrastructure program.

Some idiots even suggested that we all start our own businesses. That's it! Maybe we should all start a corporation, mail out a prospectuses, start up an IPO, get listed on the NYSE, and start selling shares. Then by this time next year we can vote to give ourselves a million dollar bonus and only pay 15% in capital gains taxes, then blame everyone else for not having a job or for not being rich, then lobby congress to cut food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.

Then after we've killed off all the poor people, we'll buy a private island and retire. Why not? Everyone else seems to be doing it..

The REAL Unemployment Rate (with numbers and links)
http://bud-meyers.blogspot.com/p/real-unemployment-rate.html

In other news today...

ARE THE BIG BANKS GETTING NERVOUS? - "650,000 customers moved $4.5 billion dollars out of the big banks and into smaller banks and credit unions in the last month. Even though the government may keep throwing money at the dinosaurs, the Basel regulations do have some capital requirements, and so the big banks need to bring in some actual deposits to fund their casino gambling. Moreover, if too many depositors leave, the illusion that the big banks are serving the American public will be burst, and a critical mass of consciousness will occur, so that the bank's questioned control over the American political and financial systems will start to be questioned."

Full Story Here:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/10/big-banks-refuse-to-let-people-close-accounts.html

20 Million - No Job & No Benefits. About 40 Woodstocks.

There were already 11 million "exhaustees" by end of 2009!

MSNBC - December 31, 2009 - "A record 20.7 million-plus Americans collected unemployment benefits at some point in 2009, a year that ended with the jobless rate at 10 percent. During the week of December 12, 2009 more than 10.1 million people collected jobless benefits* - that figure includes 5.3 million people receiving the 26 weeks of aid customarily provided by the states and 4.8 million people that have shifted to the extended benefit programs."

Also, according to USA Today, only less than half of those who were out of work and were actively trying to find a new job were even eligible to any receive unemployment benefits.

* That was almost 2 years ago! And it's now been a full 3 years since the mass layoffs began - - - and we've had layoffs and more "exhaustees" every week since then! Currently there are 7.1 million receiving State and Federal UI benefits. How many "exhaustees" are there really out there and where did they all go? China?

- - - - Look at the timeline - - - - New York Times - August 1, 2009 - "...already used up their benefits, and the numbers are expected to soar in the months to come, reaching half a million by the end of September and 1.5 million by the end of the year...the national unemployment rate was 9.5 percent...people can draw benefits for up to 79 weeks in 24 states and from 46 weeks to 72 weeks in others." New York Times - October 11, 2009 - "400,000 Americans have already exhausted their benefits during this recession and that an additional 900,000 would by the end of the year." New York Times - November 6, 2009 - "The unemployment rate reached 10.2 percent...600,000 people whose benefits have run dry within the past two months. The extension will extend the maximum amount of time laid-off workers can receive benefits to 99 weeks". New York Times - June 10, 2010 - Unemployment rate 9.7%...4.5 million collecting state benefits and 5.4 million Americans were also receiving federal extended benefits. New York Times - August 5, 2010 - 4.67 million people were receiving federal extended unemployment benefits and 4.06 million people counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits for a total of 8.73 million people. Fox News - December 01, 2010 - "...is one of nearly 2 million Americans whose extended unemployment benefits will run out this month." L.A. Times - December 15, 2010 - "The Senate has passed legislation that would temporarily extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and renew unemployment benefits for 7 million Americans." Wall Street Journal - April 30, 2011 - (5 months ago) - "5.5 million Americans unemployed and not receiving benefits...As of mid-March, about 8.5 million people were receiving some kind of unemployment payments, down from 11.5 million a year earlier, according to the Labor Department." Congressman Crowley - May 11, 2011 - "...HR 1745. This legislation would end the guarantee of federal unemployment insurance, resulting in over 4 million Americans losing their extended benefits this summer." The Fiscal Times - August 5, 2011 - "Unemployment rate is 9.1%...Some 6.2 million of the 13.9 million Americans who were unemployed in July have been jobless for more than 27 weeks...the number of those out of work for more than a year has doubled from 2.3 million in 2009 to more than 4.5 million today...approximately 4 million Americans have run out of benefits, according to the National Employment Law Project. Joshua Lamont, a Labor Department spokesman, estimated that the number of “exhaustees” is expected to grow by 1.4 million between July and December [2011]."* ) Department of Labor - TODAY in October 2011 - "7.1 million PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS." (Year-to-date they reported 9.2 million people were.)

* Even the Labor Department is estimating almost 5.4 "exhaustees", and they ALWAYS give the lowest number, and only recently claimed to have kept count. And another 3.5 million are on track to expire this January for "their" total of 8.9 million. Now add that to the previous 10 million who have already expired through 2009 and by January 2012 we will have almost 20 million Americans with no job and no income at all...far above the government "reported" 9.1% unemployment rate (far more than 13.9 million). Add to that, those who can still claim STATE unemployment benefits (jobless less than 6 months) and we have HOW MANY people who are out work? Almost the entire population of Texas!

Or almost 40 Woodstocks!

Woodstock 1969 (Click photo to enlarge)

I need to update this...
http://bud-meyers.blogspot.com/p/real-unemployment-rate.html

Unemployment Rate is 20% in October 2011

It's not 9.1% - - - it's more like 20%

Reminder: We only have 31% of the needed signatures on White House 99er Petition. Everyone should re-post this in their Facebook groups. (5,000 - 1,552 = 3,448 needed within the next 3 weeks.) THE LINK: http://wh.gov/gK1  

Thursday, October 06, 2011 - Americans continue to have mixed feelings about how the government should respond to the long-term unemployed. A new Rasmussen Poll reports national telephone survey of American adults finds that:

• 32% say government should do nothing at all.
• 25% say government should pay for their retraining.
• 21% say government should hire those long out of work.
• 10% say government should extend unemployment benefits indefinitely.< bless them ;)
  
  32% say do nothing but 56% say do something (the other 12% doesn't say, maybe they no longer have phones?)

USA Today reported that less than half of those who were out of work and were actively trying to find a new job were receiving unemployment benefits. Year-to-date the Department of Labor reported that 9 million people were collecting either state or federal extended benefits. In May of 2010 the New York Times reported almost 10 million.

So if the unemployment rate is still just over 9% (for almost 3 years straight) as people exhaust their unemployment benefits, then far more than just 8.5 million jobs were lost during the recession - so double the number of 10 million who were (and still are) unemployed. And that doesn't even count the "under-employed".

Today Dylan Ratigan MSNBC reports that the REAL unemployment rate is 20% - or 1 out of 5 people - as high as it was during some points of the Great Depression.

And by the end of the year, almost all of them will still be jobless with no income at all.

The New York Times reports today "...there is little indication that American employers will hire enough to put the millions of unemployed people back to work any time soon." (How many years have we've been hearing that?) And they say "...the total unemployment rate rose to 16.5 percent last month."

The president of the American Federation of Teachers, said that about 277,000 education jobs had been lost since 2008 and projected as many as 280,000 more job losses in the next year from state and local budget cuts.

So, are we only half-way through the layoffs?

Allen L. Sinai (the chief global economist at Decision Economics, a consulting firm) said, “C.E.O.’s are paid to grow shareholder value,” he said. “They are not paid to hire people if demand isn’t there and if they can substitute machines for people. That’s a no-brainer for the people who run companies.”

The economy is much worse off than we're being told or led to believe. That's why we have Occupy Wall Street and locally where I live, Occupy Las Vegas, and why it's spreading all across the country.

The Republicans keep telling us there are no jobs, but keep saying the unemployed are refusing jobs (and just prefer collecting unemployment benefits). But million have already exhausted all their benefits, and by January 2012, millions more will as well.