The Jobless Numbers: A Prologue to Farce and Tragedy

I am a big fan and great admirer of Robert Reich. After reading his latest article at the Huffington Post about the unemployment numbers, I felt compelled to comment. (It's worth mentioning he was the Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 1997).

He stated in his article that "the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which measures the unemployment rate every month, counts people as unemployed only if they're looking for work. If they're too discouraged even to enter the job market, they're not counted."

Now examine that statement very carefully. What part (or parts) of that sentence just doesn't ring true?

First of all, after someone's unemployment benefits expire, where do they sign in, or who do they report to, to let somebody know that they're still looking for work after their UI benefits expire? How could the Bureau of Labor Statistics possibly know if they are looking for work or not? (Please don't tell me a CPS household survey.)

Secondly, how does someone "re-enter" the work force if they want to be counted? Does this only happen when they get re-hired for work again? This whole notion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics determining this is just plain silly and doesn't hold any credibility.

I wrote to the Bureau of Labor Statistics to ask them about this:

"If the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service and all 50 states' Employment and Security Division had computerized records of EXACTLY when we worked, what we earned, where we were employed, how much tax we paid (or owed), and when we were no longer showing earnings on a W-4 form, can't all this information be easily cross referenced and shared (in part or completely) with the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics?"

It seems this would be fairly easy to do. The Bureau of Labor Statistics would have an EXACT count, at any given time, of how many people are working and how many aren't. They could also say for certain how many people had exhausted all their unemployment benefits but still remain unemployed. And they could also determine EXACTLY what percent of high school and college graduates find jobs after completing school.

Also, I believe the CPA household survey is extremely obsolete and flawed in this day and age of technology.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics wrote me back:

"The QCEW program at BLS does part of what you suggest. They aggregate all the wage and salary data collected by the UI system. The methodology that you suggest for enumerating final exhaustions is a good one but you would also need to account for the high volume of churn in the UI system. Any claimants have been through the EUC 2008 system, as an example, two and even three times. To enumerate the final exhaustees, as you indicated, you would want those people who had received at least some UI during a specified time period, and then do not now show up on wage records and are not currently receiving UI. This has been proposed to some research consortiums. The primary issue is that the UI data (both wage, salary and benefit) is governed by some aggressive confidentiality laws so it’s not the case that anyone can simply get direct access to these systems."

Confidentiality laws? But, I digress...a little over two years ago (113 weeks ago) we had 15.7 million people unemployed in October of 2009 when the unemployment rate was at 10.2%. But as Robert Reich indicated, 10 million jobs were lost since the recession began, and because at one time, there were indeed 10 million people who were receiving either state or federal unemployment benefits. And by now they have all exhausted their jobless benefits (99 weeks was the max).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says they "cannot determine the duration of unemployment for persons who had been unemployed for longer than 2 years for data prior to January 2011." Why can't they? Hmmmm?

They also say (as of December 2011) "The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 6 months or longer) was 5.6 million and accounted for 42.5 percent of the unemployed." Wow! Talk about under-reporting the jobless numbers! Two years ago we had 15.7 million, remember? And 10 million were once receiving UI benefits. How many net new jobs were created since October 2009?

NOTE: Per the current report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics... The BLS concludes that only 13.1 million (8.5%) are unemployed in a work force with a "participation rate" of 64%. 13.1 million is 8.5% of a workforce totaling 154.1 million people (154.1 million is 64% of 240.8 million if we had a "participation rate" of 100% for full employment). 240.8 million MINUS 154.1 million in 64% work force = 86.7 million Americans of working age that doesn't have a job. (Subtract those that are retired, on disability, etc.)

Barely 3 million net new jobs were created since October of 2009, so at the very least, 12.7 million Americans must have been out of work for over 2 years or more - - - yet the media is parroting the Bureau of Labor Statistics by saying "1.9 million have been out of work for 99 weeks or more". That is numerically impossible.

And we also had many more layoffs since October of 2009. Add to that, we also had another 6 million high school and college graduates since that time as well. They ALL didn't just "drop out" of the labor force and move in to their parent's basement...they're just not counted. They've all just been swept under the statistical rug by the Department of Labor.

A few may have retired with reduced Social Security benefits if they were 62 or older, and some applied for Social Security Disability. Some might have left the country, and some could have started their own business. And some are being supported by others, as some passed away....but what about everybody else? Where did everybody else go?

According to www.shadowstats.com, the broadest official government measure of unemployment (U-6) is now at 15.2%. This includes "discouraged" workers -- if they've been "discouraged" for less than one year. The SGS unemployment figure of 22.4% includes the long-term unemployed and "discouraged." (I had earlier calculated almost 20% with 27 million now unemployed. That's 1 out every 5 working age adults.)

An update from the U.S. Department of Labor:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

"Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2012 scheduled for February 3, 2012, population controls that reflect the results of Census 2010 [rather than 2000] will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process. Historical data will not be revised to incorporate the new controls; consequently, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods."

Re-adjusted seasonal adjustments and revised census data should make for some ghastly unemployment reports in the near future.

Both major political parties skew the statistics for political purposes. But the Occupy Wall Street movement isn't a figment of your imagination, they're protesting for a reason...the numbers prove it.

And if you've read this far, you'll appreciate this jewel from James Madison in 1882:

"A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance: And a people who mean to be their own Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives."

My Related Posts:

• Where did 15 million jobless Americans go?
• 15 Million Americans Jobless Over 2 years
• Long-Term Unemployment is Here to Stay
• 6 Million Graduates Not Counted in Unemployment Rate
• The unemployed didn't just "drop out"
• Who will "Live Free or Die" in 2012?

They Got Theirs, The Working-Class Got Jacked

Recently Deborah L Purdom on an unemployed Facebook page had took note and made mention - "It is so sad to notice that, as time goes on, we have lost more and more of the original members of this page, and unfortunately, have gained more new ones. I sometimes wonder what happened to the 'first' members and how they are faring. I hope they are managing to survive somehow! Bless them all!"

I would tell her: It's probably all part of the government's plan to eliminate a huge chunk of the middle-aged working-class. Gradually reducing the numbers, incrementally shoving them into poverty (or worse), until they all just fade into obscurity (or die). A leaner and meaner economy, but with a reduced workforce and less tax revenue going in to the treasury (and because of tax cuts extended for the rich). Most programs for the poor will be eliminated first before any goodies for the rich will ever have to suffer.

The politicians cater to American corporations, and they in turn cater to their "emerging markets" overseas. 15 million Americans were sacrificed to further enrich the very few. All the complaining in the world will do nothing for the unemployed. No meaningful laws will ever be enacted to protect American workers and consumers. If anything, just window dressing will be applied to assuage and assure the other 80% of the population who's still gainfully employed - and they will be told that everything that can be done for the jobless, is being done.

It takes 50% of the population to be disenfranchised enough before true revolution breaks out, but the government and America corporations carefully maintain a well-planned balance in this ratio to prevent this "tipping point" from ever occurring. American consumers and workers aren't high on the list for corporate profiteers - American corporations don't feel any sense of honor, patriotism, or responsibility to this country. They are strictly profit-driven with no "human" connection at all.

The politicians are the same way...I can hear them now, "I got mine!" America has been a ME society for a very long time, and everyone who can, will, step over a corpse to make an extra dollar in revenue. Greed prevails, and all their talk about "family values" and "moral principals" is nothing more than the usual BS.

It's not just the federal government that's going broke, the States are too. Nobody has any money except for the rich people (and those in China) and they're not paying any more into the State and federal kitty, nor are they creating jobs for Americans. We can't outsource teacher's, firefighter's, and policemen's jobs overseas; but if WE aren't working, then we can't pay their salaries either. When State and federal jobs are all eliminated, who's left paying taxes - what's left in the treasury to pay THEM unemployment benefits? The downward spiral. We can't even afford to pay the salaries to the people working in the unemployment offices!

Home foreclosures haven't even peaked yet and most home prices are still underwater. If you're rich, it's a great buyer's market, sweeping up all those nice homes for pennies on the dollar from the banks (who wouldn't refinance). I can see a vast number of private homes being permanently rented. We might see many of them turning into multi-family housing units like the old mansions of yesteryear.

"Uncertainty" has been the GOP's and the wealthiest excuse for not hiring before they got their tax cuts extended late last year, but they still aren't hiring. Most of the jobs that were permanently lost were all lost while they had those very tax cuts since 2001. Yet the GOP complains about the deficit, and that's why we're going broke. House leader John Boehner on Meet the Press today was blaming the "federal government" going back 40 years for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but aren't people like he and the GOP part of this federal government?

The politicians and the corporate profiteers want to blame everybody else but themselves for destroying middle America, and instead of working on solutions, they just continue to allow what collapsed the economy in the first place...while playing the useless blame game. The Vice President tells the unemployed in "hang in there" as they lost their life's savings, their homes, and their cars. What's left to hang on to when everything else is gone, including hope Mister VP?

How does someone who lost their car and now barely subsists on food stamps get back into the job market when jobs are finally (if ever) created? I can't even buy a new shirt or pair of shoes for work if I needed to. I buy items like shaving cream with money I get from my DONATE button on this blog. And I'm one of the lucky ones!

Recently the fed chief Ben Bernanke said it could take up to 4 to 5 [more] years before we ever see a "normal" unemployment rate of 6% again (NOTE: It USED to be 5%, so the bar has been lowered by the feds). But how can even 5% be considered "normal" when ours was only 4% not too long ago (just like China's is today). And the way the government has been manipulating the unemployment numbers for the past two years, a "normal" unemployment rate of 6% in 2016 could very well be a REAL unemployment rate of 10% (it's most likely about 13% today, not 9% as the government boasts).

Smoke and mirrors, lies, and more BS is all we've been getting from the politicians, bankers, and CEOs. They got theirs, and to them, that's all that matters. American citizens, to them, are just a necessary nuisance for them. They would prefer not to have to deal with all our complaining, and to just keep socking away more cash in the bank...because if the dollar loses any more value, and if prices go up much more, those rich pigs might need a wheel-barrel full of cash just to buy a damn loaf of bread. And the unemployed (who got NADA) will be fighting each other just to feed off their crumbs.

This time last year I said it was going to get a lot worse before it got any better. And today I'll say it again. This slaughter of the middle-class isn't near over, not when we still have millions of people who are still dependent of unemployment benefits - their only source of income that will expire in 12 short months. Even if another 14 weeks were ever added, it only delays the inevitable.

And I agree with Deborah - I hope "the lost ones" are managing to survive somehow too.

Vote Bernie Sanders TIME Person of the Year 2015

Who should be TIME’s 2015 Person of the Year? The current poll results shows Bernie Sanders leading the 2nd place nominee by DOUBLE.
http://time.com/4110428/person-of-the-year-readers-poll-results-2015/ 

You can vote "YES" for Bernie Sanders here. NOTE: You will need a Twitter or Facebook account to log in and vote. 
http://time.com/4108617/person-of-the-year-poll-2015/vote/47/ 

To Tweet: Vote for #BernieSanders as TIME's Person of the Year at http://ti.me/1Oe2pzC  #TIMEPOY

There's also several "face-off" polls — this link is for Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton (Bernie is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead!) Just click on your preference and log in with Twitter or Facebook to register your vote.
http://time.com/4109448/face-off-person-of-the-year-2015/vote/13/ 

To Tweet: I think Bernie Sanders should be #TIMEPOY. Vote now http://ti.me/1N9KoVT  via @TIME 

NOTE: Voting closes at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 4th, and the combined winner of TIME's reader polls will be announced on Dec. 7th — and TIME’s "official" Person of the Year will be announced Dec. 9th. (You can also go here to vote "NO" for Kim Kardashian). 

To Tweet: Vote for #BernieSanders as TIME's Person of the Year at http://ti.me/1Oe2pzC  #TIMEPOY

* You can also go here to vote "NO" for Kim Kardashian.
http://time.com/4108617/person-of-the-year-poll-2015/vote/18/ 

On the TIME list [so far] Bernie Sanders garnered more than 12 percent of the vote, putting him well ahead of runner-up ... The next U.S. presidential candidate is way down the list, the bombastic Donald Trump, with 1.9 percent of the vote ... The Donald isn't giving up hope, though. He's using reverse psychology on Time's editors:

"I say there's no way they give it to me," he said last week. "They can't. Because, mentally, they can't. They just can't. They can't do it. Even if I deserve it, they can't do it." 

* Kardashian, in case you're interested, is in 51st place at the moment, earning less than 1 percent of the vote.

More here...
http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2015/11/bernie_sanders_leads_times_per.html

I'm So Tired of Being Tired

(Reported on CNN by Ali Velshi today)

I'm tired of the waiting. As I see my life winding down in about three more weeks I have pondered the absence of relevance in my past life, and the lack of significance my passing will be to the world. I am nobody, just another ant on the ant hill. I am just one of over 6 billion humans on earth. An easy sacrifice for those who profit.

I'm tired of ranting and railing against the media, the politicians, the bankers, the CEOs, and all the rest who contributed to the abbreviation my life. Why bother wasting what little time I have left after wasting so much already? That's insane. I was defeated, I surrender. I lose.

I'm tired of the struggle, the meaningless attempts to find gainful employment - to sell myself to others who aren't interested. I feel foolish for even trying now. When does one finally realize that nobody wants you? Just like all my complaints, my job applications were falling on deaf ears. What a terrible waste of precious time. I wish I had the last two years of my life again - I would have done things so much differently.

I'm tired of hoping when after all I've had for over two long years has been isolation, loneliness, disappointment, anger, frustration, and depression while engaging in useless efforts to find work and survive. But no matter how difficult that has been, now I must face the stark reality of the last three weeks of my life.

I'm tired of busting my ass so that others can benefit from my labor when all I could ever afford in life was just a constant and daily struggle to survive. Looking back, I ask myself, "For what?" Just to eat and breathe - something that the taxpayers, employers, and government leaders don't feel is important enough to maintain. Maybe it's time for a long rest. Maybe they're right, I'm not worth the financial investment any more. A waste of resources.

I'm tired of living in fear and the dreams I have at night. I'm tired of always peeking through the living room blinds, waiting for the car to be repossessed. I'm tires of wondering when I'll lose my electricity, heat, and cable service. I'm tired of the holes in my socks. I'm tired of asking for help or understanding. I'm tired of those who feel no empathy - those who still have jobs and go about their lives as though people like me don't exist. Apathy is all I see.

I'm tired of being made to feel like dirt because I lost my job, used up all my funds, and can no longer pay my bills - as though I never worked a day in my life and have been on the government dole like a blood-sucking leech to the taxpayers all these years. I'm tired of being talked to and treated and looked down upon as a big loser because I lost my means of supporting myself at the age of 55.

I'm tired of waiting for a family reconciliation. Strangers have come to feel more sympathy than anyone who used to be a family member. A bitter pill to swallow to know that someone you loved since birth allowed you to perish. It's been that way since Kane and Abel I suppose, no one can be trusted or depended upon. People lie, cheat, steal, and kill for earthly goods as though hell doesn't exist - death is just nothingness to those who don't believe in a superior entity.

I'm tired of being so alone. Although there have been other jobless people I've come to know and admire through the internet, they've mostly been jobless strangers who have banded together from across the country who feel this connection to one another. Our commonality may be our desperation - a pitiful thing to share with others when that is the glue to a friendship. But I am most appreciative to those who have reached out to me and have showed me support and offered their kindness and help to me. But like everyone else, I can never repay them back either.

I'm tired of things breaking or getting old because I can't afford to replace, fix, or repair anything. Like my own life, all my possessions are coming unraveled as well. It's been a downward spiral that's been quickly escalating lately. I've been frantic while watching things like my previous web sites go down, and by the end of the month I will also lose my cable TV and internet connection (I begged them to allow me this much added time with a promise to pay them with a non-existent tax return next month.)

I'm tired of waiting for a miracle to happen or someone to save me because I wasn't capable of saving myself any longer. I'm seven years away from Social Security benefits and a union pension, so that is not enough to hope for. Seven years living as a homeless man at my age and with my health is impossible. After being refused a job for over two years I have atrophy and back pain - and shortness of breath from too much stress-related smoking.

I'm tired of being tired - I'm so depressed that I can barely leave my home to buy food, but I must - just one more time while I still have $157 cash and a car that the bank hasn't taken yet. I MUST force myself to stop procrastinating and get dressed and shaved and face the world one more time. Put on my happy face, and act polite and "normal" until I can return to the "safe" confines of my dwelling.

Only three more weeks, and I won't be tired any longer. I will finally be able to relax and not worry anymore about my worth, what people think of me, how I feel, or how I will survive. I will have solved all those problems and more...I will never have to file another federal income tax return or ever worry again about how I will buy food or pay my rent again.

I'm so damn tired of being a "99er". Had there been a "Tier Five", I might have survived to be tired a while longer.

(* My website http://www.acompanyofone.org/ is presently down. It may, or may not be, resolved.)